Winning Bets (Hopefully) For All Three NFL Wild Card Round Games Sunday

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My favorite weekend of the year, 2025 NFL Wild Card Round, peaks Sunday with a triple-header. It features the AFC’s 7-seed Broncos visiting the AFC East champion Bills, the NFC East winner Eagles playing the NFC’s 7-seed Packers, and the 6-seed Commanders facing the NFC South champion Buccaneers. 

Even though this is my “favorite weekend of the year”, I’m celebrating this NFL Sunday the same way I do every NFL Sunday: Gambling my a** off. With that in mind, keep reading for my best bets for all three wild-card games Sunday. 

2025 NFL Wild Card Round Betting Card

1. Denver Broncos +8.5 (-110) at Buffalo Bills via FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
2. Green Bay Packers +5.5 (-110) at Philadelphia Eagles via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.

Broncos (+8.5) at Bills, 1 p.m. ET

Besides Buffalo QB, and 2024-25 NFL MVP candidate, Josh Allen, Denver is better at every position. Granted, betting against Allen is scary. Especially with Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix, and rookies usually lay eggs in their postseason debuts. However, the Bills -8.5 (down to -7.5) is just too many points for this matchup. 

One of the craziest stats I dug up when looking into these wild-card games is Denver’s +39 sack margin!! The Broncos have 63 sacks this season and Nix has only taken 24 sacks. That’s insane. Denver’s offensive line is first in both pass- and run-blocking win rates, per ESPN. If the Broncos can dominate the point of attack, they’ll keep this game close. 

Broncos head coach Sean Payton put his reputation on the line when picking Nix 12th in the 2024 NFL Draft. Everyone, myself included, thought Nix at No. 12 was a reach. Payton acted like he drafted his next Drew Brees. Yet, Nix would be the 2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year if it weren’t for Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. 

Lastly, most people think Denver is lucky to be in the playoffs. But, the Broncos are 1-6 in one-score games and should’ve beaten the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this season. They have 11.5 expected wins on the 15th-toughest schedule, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). While the Bills have 11.9 expected wins on the 21st-toughest schedule. 

Prediction: Buffalo 24, Denver 21

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Packers (+5.5) at Eagles, 4:30 p.m. ET

A profitable betting system for the wild-card round is backing teams with the tougher regular-season strength of schedule. Green Bay had the 10th-toughest schedule, according to PFF, and Philadelphia, the 29th. That’s the biggest game in strength of schedule in the wild-card round.

The Eagles throw the fewest passes per game in the league, QB Jalen Hurts has the fourth-highest sack rate (9.5%), and the Packers are 10th in sack rate (7.4%). The three quarterbacks with a higher sack rate than Hurts are Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson (13.3%), Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis (12.0%), and Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (10.8%).

Cleveland and Tennessee have the top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft and will probably both take quarterbacks. Williams has the most sacks in the NFL and had two different head coaches and three different offensive coordinators this season. This is a bad look for Hurts. Philly has one of the best offensive lines in football, so Hurts isn’t processing fast enough.

Also, the Packers are low-key elite at stopping the run. Per ESPN, Green Bay’s defense is third in yards per rush allowed and seventh in run-stopping win rate. The NFL average for yards per rush is 4.4. The Packers have allowed 4.4+ yards per rush four times this season, and they are 4-0 in those games. 

LISTEN: The OutKick Bets Podcast’s NFL Wild Card Weekend 2025 Betting Roundtable ft. Dan Z & Scott Martin

Philadelphia is the second-most popular spread bet in the wild-card round, behind the Baltimore Ravens, partially due to Green Bay losing to Chicago Sunday, which entered Week 18 on a 10-game losing skid. Finally, the Packers are 15-2 against the spread in their last 17 games as an underdog of three or more points.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Philadelphia 24 

• The Packers +5.5 (down to +3.5) is my favorite bet for the 2024 NFL Wild Card Round, and I’d sprinkle on Green Bay’s +210 moneyline at BetMGM. For example, if your “unit” is $100, then bet $25 on the Packers to beat the Eagles outright.

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Commanders at Buccaneers (-3), 8 p.m. ET

Washington had two more regular-season wins, but Tampa Bay has the stats of a top-five team. The Bucs are fifth in yards per play margin and fourth in early-down EPA/play differential. In the first month of the season, they smacked the Commanders 37-20, upset the Detroit Lions 20-16 on the road, and beat the Eagles by 17 points. 

Sure, Tampa’s win over Washington was in Week 1, aka Daniels’ first game in the NFL and head coach Dan Quinn’s first game with the Commanders. Regardless, rookie quarterbacks struggle in their playoff debuts and against Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles historically. 

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield is out here dealing. Baker is third in passing yards (4,500) and tied for second in passing touchdowns (41). In Week 1, Mayfield torched Washington, completing 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. 

My last two factors for backing the Bucs here are the strength-of-schedule angle mentioned above being in their favor and the likelihood that Commanders are a “trendy underdog” by the betting public. Tampa played the 18th-toughest schedule this season and Washington, the 31st, per PFF.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 31, Washington 21

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.