Overrated Texas Has No Shot Vs. Ohio State In 2024-25 College Football Playoff Semifinal

Two of college football’s biggest programs meet in the semifinals of the 2024-25 College Football Playoff. The 8-seed Ohio State Buckeyes, the highest-power-rated team in college football, take on the 5-seed Texas Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl on Friday at AT&T Stadium in Texas. Neither team would be here in the past 10 CFPs since it’s the first year of a 12-team format. 

Ohio State thrashed its first two CFP opponents: the 9-seed Tennessee Volunteers 42-17 in the first round and the 1-seed Oregon Ducks 41-21 in the quarterfinals. Texas barely covered as -13.5 favorites in a 38-24 win vs. the 12-seed Clemson Tigers in the first round and needed double-overtime to beat the 4-seed Arizona State Sun Devils 39-31 in the quarterfinals. 

As of Thursday, the Buckeyes are -6 favorites at DraftKings with a -225 moneyline and the total is 53.5. After pummeling Oregon, I’m expecting OSU to be the public betting favorite. I’ve already made peace with the likelihood that the sportsbooks will root for the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl. 

Ohio State Buckeyes WR Jeremiah Smith scores a touchdown vs. the Oregon Ducks in the 2025 College Football Playoff quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl Stadium. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

Yet, I’m not doing the “fade the public” thing because I cannot make a pro-Texas argument. Believe me, I tried. I hate following the public, especially in college football, where contrarian bets seem more profitable. However, part of my rationale for betting Arizona State to cover the spread in the Peach Bowl was fading an overrated UT squad. 

For instance, Texas’s best win was over Clemson (15th in TeamRankings.com’s power ratings). The Longhorns lost twice to the worst Georgia Bulldogs team since head coach Kirby Smart’s first year with the program. Meanwhile, Ohio State beat the Penn State Nittany Lions (seventh), the Indiana Hoosiers (10th), Tennessee (eighth), and Oregon (ninth). 

RELATED: Quinn Ewers Comes Full Circle, Leans On Faith As Texas Prepares For Ohio State

Also, the Longhorns aren’t even playing their best quarterback, and everyone knows it. Texas second-string QB Arch Manning has a better completion rate (67.8-66.5%), touchdown rate (10.0-7.1%), yards per pass (10.4-7.9), yards per rush (+4.2 to -1.2), and QB Rating (184.0-150.6) than starting QB Quinn Ewers.

The Texas Longhorns play the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl of the 2024-25 College Football Playoff. (Photo credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Texas makes too many mistakes and OSU has had terrible luck with officiating, which has to change eventually. The Longhorns are 88th in penalties per game (out of 134 FBS programs) and 86th in turnovers per game. The Buckeyes are 19th in turnovers per game, seventh in penalties per game, and 134th in opponent’s penalties per game. 

We’ve seen cracks in UT’s pass defense in the CFP. Texas gave up 336 passing yards to Clemson and 296 passing yards to Arizona State. Ohio State QB Will Howard threw for 311 yards vs. Tennessee and 319 yards vs. Oregon. Buckeyes WRs Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are future first-round NFL draft picks. 

My biggest concern about betting on OSU is head coach Ryan Day, who hasn’t gotten the most out of his talent in recent seasons. That said, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian doesn’t get enough sh*t for never winning a big game. Hence, the coaching matchup is a wash and Ohio State’s talent will reign supreme at the Cotton Bowl. 

Prediction: Ohio State 34, Texas 21 

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