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Key Points and Summary: As the Russo-Ukraine war enters its fourth year, Russia faces mounting challenges, including nearly 800,000 casualties and a declining economy plagued by international sanctions. Despite setbacks, over 70% of Russians support the invasion, and Putin continues to escalate military spending.

-Meanwhile, Ukraine remains resilient, with 92% of its citizens backing their military and a new wave of surprise attacks disrupting Russian forces. However, international pressure for negotiations grows, particularly from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war swiftly.

-A potential Russian recession, coupled with sustained Ukrainian battlefield successes and global support, could bring the war closer to an end by 2026.

Can Ukraine Outlast Russia in the Russo-Ukraine War? Key Predictions for 2025

Three years on, the Russian Federation still seems keen on waging its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since launching the military incursion into Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the Russians have been embarrassed.

According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Russians have sustained nearly 800,000 casualties since the start of the war, half of which came in 2024. In addition, the Russians lost tens of billions in military equipment. Despite these tremendous losses, the Russian Federation will continue to wage its war in Ukraine.

To date, over 70% of Russian citizens continue to support Russia’s full-scale invasion. Most Russians still believe that their military can win the war. In addition, over 70% of Russian citizens continue to favor Russian President Vladimir Putin and his actions. As a result, Putin will continue to wage his war, claiming he is seeking to please his citizens and voters.

He will also continue to push for a forced victory in 2025. After enlisting Serbian, Indian, and Yemeni mercenaries to fight in his war, Putin welcomed thousands of North Korean soldiers to help him in his invasion of Ukraine. Their inclusion, however, has not been successful. Several Indian and Yemeni mercenaries have opted to terminate their contracts after seeing the horrors of war. Meanwhile, the North Korean troops have struggled to assimilate with their Russian counterparts, and hundreds of North Korean soldiers have been killed.

Given these failures, Putin will look to conscript tens of thousands of additional Russians to fight his war. The Russian leader will lose favorability from North Koreans along the way. These actions will signal that he cannot rely on North Korean soldiers to help him win his war, but he will not be bothered by these opinions. Putin understands that Russian citizens and the Russian government continue to support his war on Ukraine, and they are fully committed to the Russian war machine.

Putin’s obsession will weaken the Russian economy. Aside from the hardships the Russians faced on the battlefield, the Russian economy suffered during the war. In 2022, the Russian economy shrank by 2.1%. More recently, Russia’s currency has plunged on a global scale. The international community has sanctioned numerous Russian companies, and it is estimated that Russia has lost over $100 billion due to sanctions. In addition, several Russian banks have been removed from the international financial messaging system SWIFT.

Despite these financial losses, Putin has ordered an increase in military spending. Given the state of the Russian economy, several economists have predicted that there will be a recession in Russia. The price of goods in Russia will increase, and the economic state in Russia will make it harder for the Russian Federation to continue purchasing weapons and equipment for its war. As the financial situation worsens in Russia as the year progresses, Russia will seek to conserve its weapons and defense equipment.

As for Ukraine, confidence remains high. According to a recent Gallup survey, 92% of Ukrainians support their military. In addition, over 60% of Ukrainian citizens approve of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Finally, 81% of Ukrainians said that the war can only end once the Russian-occupied territories are fully liberated.

The Ukrainians will also continue to surprise and inspire their allies and partners. At the start of the year, the Ukrainians have already launched a new surprise attack in the Russian province of Kursk. It is predicted that Ukraine will launch similar attacks throughout the Ukrainian-Russian border to disrupt Russian troop movements and advances in southern and eastern Ukraine. Finally, Ukraine will see additional successes around the Black Sea and Crimea, where a significant Ukrainian victory will see the destruction of the Kerch Bridge.

Despite their belief that victory is achievable, the Ukrainians now face enormous pressure from their allies and partners. For example, President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the Russo-Ukraine war within 24 hours. Trump’s ambitious goal will fail. Putin has said he is not interested in ending his war. In addition, the Ukrainians said they want to negotiate from a position of strength. The Ukrainians do not want to be forced into a peace deal.

Ukraine Attack on Russian Missiles

After failing to end the Russo-Ukraine war, Trump will pressure the Europeans to provide greater defense and humanitarian assistance. Vice President-elect JD Vance and Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson have said that the United States should stop sending defense aid to Ukraine. While there is enough bipartisan support in the House and Senate to ensure that U.S. aid to Ukraine does not dry up, there will be concern over future U.S. assistance to Ukraine and how the Europeans can compensate for this event. Nonetheless, most American and European allies, as well as dozens of other countries throughout the world, will continue to provide aid and support to Ukraine.

In short, the events that unfold in 2025 in the Russo-Ukraine war will be significant. Should there be an economic recession in Russia, this will speed up the end to the war. The Ukrainians can take advantage of Russia’s misfortunes by launching new surprises, which will put additional pressure on Russia. Finally, while the financial amount of defense and humanitarian aid to Ukraine may differ, the United States, the European Union, NATO, and several other countries and organizations will continue supporting Ukraine.

Victory for Ukraine is still achievable, but it will require help from additional actors. A decline in the Russian economy, Ukrainian successes on the battlefield, and international support may finally help bring an end to the Russo-Ukraine war in 2026.

About the Author: Mark Temnycky

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. This first appeared in RealClearDefense.