Did China’s J-20 Stealth Bomber Just Make Its First Flight?

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Key Points and Summary: Speculation has emerged regarding the maiden flight of China’s Xi’an H-20 stealth bomber, fueled by a video circulating on social media.

-However, doubts persist about its authenticity due to questionable footage, lack of confirmation from Chinese state media, and the Pentagon’s assessment that the H-20 is still years away from operational readiness.

-If real, the H-20 could project power with a 6,000-mile range, threatening U.S. bases in Guam and Japan.

-Designed for nuclear and conventional strikes, the H-20 could be a game-changer in the Pacific. Yet, until official confirmation, the bomber’s first flight remains unverified and most likely is a fake. 

Did China’s New H-20 Stealth Bomber Make Its Maiden Flight?

With the proliferation of widely available and free artificial intelligence tools that can create a fake photo or video, one must be skeptical about what is seen online. That’s why we will take with a grain of salt a recent social media reel that could be evidence of a test flight from China’s new Xi’an H-20 stealth bomber. 

This Is One Big Airplane. If the H-20 Bomber Video Is Authentic

The H-20 has a big flying-wing shape in the video being shared, and some Chinese social media observers were sure it was a stealth bomber.

 The alleged H-20 was followed by what looked like a J-16 fighter in the video. The H-20 had a “pronounced tail with inclined vertical fins,” according to media reports.

If one can compare the dimensions of the J-16 to the H-20, the new bomber looked over 100 feet long, making it one of the largest stealth bombers in the world. 

The Chinese military did boast last year on WeChat that the H-20 would appear on January 1, 2025. That would mean that the H-20 video could be authentic. 

However, any social media user could have taken that information and devised a fake video of the bomber.

At this point, the most likely answer is the video is not authentic. 

The Airplane Has Much Upside 

If the video were real – at this point, we doubt it –  this would be a groundbreaking development as the H-20 could dominate the region with its stealthiness, range, and ability to launch nuclear weapons and precision-guided munitions.  

It can be compared to the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and the new B-21 Raider, although it appears that the H-20 could be larger than both of those airplanes if the video was real.

One reason to believe that the video is fake is that some defense analysts do not think the H-20 will be flying regularly until the 2030s. There are also very few angles of the video footage being shared. There is also no noise coming out of Chinese State Media organs, who would usually sing to the heavens that such a plane just hit the skies. 

Also, there are very few photo stills of the plane floating around social media, like the recent J-36 stealth warplane flights, and some have commentated about the weird flags flying in the video that look strange and do not match the footage in some ways. 

Pentagon’s Comprehensive China Review Said the H-20 Won’t Be Ready for Years

The latest China military power report from the U.S. Department of Defense, one of the best reviews of Chinese military hardware and various capabilities, did not have much to say about the H-20. Analysts described it as an outgrowth of the JH-XX program.

“The PLAAF is seeking to extend its power projection capability with the development f a new H-20 stealth strategic bomber, with official PRC state media stating that this new stealth bomber will have a nuclear mission in addition to filling conventional roles,” the report said. “The PLAAF is developing new medium- and long-range stealth bombers to strike regional and global targets.”

Japan and Guam Is in Danger with Long-range H-20

The report explained the H-20 would not make its debut until the next decade. It could have a range of more than 6,000 miles, enabling it to reach American military targets at air bases on Japan and Guam with conventional or nuclear strike power.

The H-20’s stealth capability may be over-rated and not as able to evade radar as the B-2 or B-21. The range may also be exaggerated. But even if the bomber could hit targets in the First Island Chain, that would make it a practical addition to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).

The H-20 could have the capability to collect intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data and engage in electronic warfare roles. It could also be a “drone mothership” tethering one or more “Loyal Wingman” unmanned craft.

Could It Be Five to Ten Years Ahead of Schedule?

If the video could be believed in someway, it would be evidence that the PLAAF is much further along with the H-20, perhaps even five years ahead of schedule. 

PLAAF generals have been excited about the H-20 for a long time, and one even claimed in 2024 that it was coming soon. “Just wait,” said the PLAAF’s second in command Lt. Gen. Wang Wei.

Alas, I don’t think this video is the real deal. If the new bomber had its maiden flight, more generals and the Chinese legacy media would have blown up the airwaves and trumpeted the herald of the new bomber. Since there has not been an official confirmation of the flight, we wonder if it flew, and truly doubt it.

Best Bomber Is Asia

Nevertheless, the PLAAF has ambitions to create a stealth warplane with long-range and nuclear capability. It would be the best bomber in East Asia. 

The H-20 could also hit the U.S. military bases in the region, destroy runways, and blind air defenses with electronic warfare capabilities. This would make it highly effective on Day One of any conflict with the United States or Taiwan.

No H-20 Bomber Flight…For Now

We will keep an eye open for the officially sanctioned and confirmed video of the new bomber, as this one looks a little suspect. If it flew recently, this would surprise U.S. intelligence and show that the Americans are not privy to correct information about China’s military developments. But at this point, the video does look fake. 

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood 

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

The main image is from Chinese State TV years ago.