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The eventual insolvency of Social Security is one of those issues that’s on the far horizon, even if it doesn’t seem like anyone in politics is talking much about it. The issue was barely a factor in the 2024 presidential election, and none of the analyses of the agenda for Donald Trump’s new term mention the long-term sustainability of the program, aside from Trump’s repeated insistence on not allowing any cuts to Social Security. 

Social Security Going Broke? Not Exactly, But Benefits Could Get Cut

However, the government has been projecting for many years that the program will, at some point in the 2030s, lose the ability to pay out full benefits. However, the actual date of that happening tends to change each year that the Social Security Board of Trustees puts out the report. 

According to the most recent version of the report, released last May, “The OASI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits on time until 2033. The DI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits throughout the 75-year projection period ending in 2098.

“Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion. In the absence of such legislation, continuing income to the trust funds at the time of reserve depletion would be sufficient to pay 79 percent of OASI benefits.” 

According to a statement at the time by Martin O’Malley, the Biden Administration’s Commissioner of Social Security, the report was good news, because “any potential benefit reduction event has been pushed off from 2034 to 2035.” 

“So long as Americans across our country continue to work, Social Security can — and will — continue to pay benefits,” O’Malley said in the report last spring. “Congress can and should take action to extend the financial health of the Trust Fund into the foreseeable future, just as it did in the past on a bipartisan basis. Eliminating the shortfall will bring peace of mind to Social Security’s 70 million-plus beneficiaries, the 180 million workers and their families who contribute to Social Security, and the entire nation.”

President Biden, in one of his last acts in office, did indeed sign a Social Security-related law this week, called the Social Security Fairness Act, which will increase Social Security payments for nearly 3 million public workers. The bipartisan law repeals a pair of longtime provisions, the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP, and the Government Pension Offset, or GPO, and will therefore lead to increased benefits. 

The Fairness Act was one of several pieces of Social Security legislation introduced in Congress in recent years, including some specifically aimed at extending Social Security’s solvency further into the future. 

One was the Social Security 2100 Act, which was introduced in multiple versions over the years by Rep. John Larson (D-CT). And while the Democrats made a big deal about protecting Social Security, especially after a midterm election in which they painted Republicans as wanting to cut benefits, Larson’s legislation was never taken up at the time when Democrats still held majorities in Congress, with a Democrat in the White House. 

Larson was re-elected to Congress, but his legislation is unlikely to move forward in the Trump era. 

What Will Donald Trump Do on Social Security? 

So what happens with the program, in the second Trump presidency? That remains unclear. 

While some in the GOP’s deficit hawk wing have made noises about being willing to cut the popular program — and Elon Musk’s DOGE is also pushing for aggressive cost-cutting in government — Trump has promised not to go through with Social Security cuts. And George W. Bush, the last GOP president to win a popular-vote victory, made an ill-fated push for Social Security privatization, which was an early harbinger of Bush’s disastrous second term. 

But at some point before the mid-2030s, some president and some Congress is going to need to address the Social Security elephant in the room. 

Author Expertise and Experience:

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.