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Incoming American President Donald Trump keeps talking about Canada joining the United States. Unfortunately for him, Canadian public opinion does not support accession, and the administrative hurdles are substantial. The likelihood Canada would join America without the US use of force is effectively zero. America has not had territorial designs on Canada in more than a century, nor war plans regarding Canada since the inter-war period.

Trump’s suggestion, by the standards of behavior among liberal, democratic countries, is grossly irresponsible. Even his most devoted ‘MAGA’ (Make America Great Again) pundits in the US would likely balk at an American attack on a long-friendly country like Canada.

Donald Trump’s Penchant for Threats

Trump has threatened to use force against Mexico and Panama recently, so it is possible he would threaten Canada. Trump enjoys dominance displays; he clearly thrills to bullying smaller US partners, demanding compensation for security guarantees and trade deficits.

But he has rarely followed through, especially when faced with real resistance. For example, during his first term, Trump insisted that South Korea quintuple its financial support for US troops in-country. Seoul balked, and the US foreign policy community strongly opposed a breach with a long-standing US ally proximate to China.

Trump quickly lost interest, and when Joe Biden became president, Seoul struck a new, more traditional burden-sharing deal with him.

That is likely the outcome here too. Trump will encounter bureaucratic resistance. Many in Congress, the military, and State Department would resist serious bullying of a US ally which has fought with it in every major conflict since World War I (except Vietnam). Far more likely is that this is yet another episode of the ‘Trump Show’ – Trump’s penchant for trolling his opponents with wild, outlandish threats which draw a lot of media attention but are quickly forgotten.

Scenarios of Canadian Fragmentation

Trump is almost certainly not going to attack Canada. Instead, he probably just enjoys trolling Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, whom Trump intensely dislikes. Also, as others have noticed, bullying smaller neighbors is an easy way for Trump to cover up his inability to meet his campaign promises. Trump cannot, in fact, bring down the price of eggs or gas as he promised, and his proposed tariffs would lift US inflation substantially. 

In contrast to these domestic constraints, US president have enjoy considerable freedom of action in foreign policy. Trump can issue threats on which he could act without constitutional constraint. The blocks on Trump attacking Canada are more political and strategic than legal. But even here the grounds for Trump’s rhetoric are thin.

Strategically, no one in America or Canada has discussed the possibility of Canadian fragmentation and accession in decades. The last time was in 1995, when Quebec, the majority French-speaking province of Canada, held a referendum on independence.

President Donald Trump’s meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau this week covered a host of topics: the need for swift passage of USMCA, solutions to the opioid crisis affecting both nations, defending human rights in the Western Hemisphere, and more

Had that vote achieved a majority, Quebec secession might have led to the break-up of Canada as a whole. The Quebecois first minister at the time, Jacques Parizeau, indicated later that he would have declared independence unilaterally have he won over 50% – in face of federal resistance if necessary.

That might have resulted in intra-Canadian conflict, and the rolling break-up of the country. Individual secessionist provinces might have sought to join the US rather than stand alone.

This scenario seems far-fetched now. There has not been another Quebec secession referendum. But stirring up French-speaking resistance to federal rule is the most obvious path to Canada’s break-up and accession to the US. That Trump is not speaking of this – and probably does not even know about – is the best indicator than he is not serious about Canadian accession to the US.

This Does Not Serve Trump’s Voters

The more important question behind all this is why this is even an issue of discussion. Trump did not run on this. There is no evidence that his voters, MAGA, or the MAGA media universe (Fox News, talk radio) care about this issue or would carry meaningful costs for it.

Bullying Canada and other American neighbors does nothing to help the downscale constituencies for Trump. Trump’s coalition is a curious alignment of the wealthy and lower middle class. Papering over the differences between those two divergent constituencies is likely the point of all this empty bluster.

About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly 

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.