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Key Points and Summary: The U.S. is advancing its Sentinel ICBM to replace the aging Minuteman III, essential for maintaining nuclear deterrence amid rising threats from China and Russia.

The Problem: With a projected lifecycle cost of $3.9 billion in FY25, the Sentinel ICBM faces budget overruns and delays, now targeting initial deployment by the 2030s.

-Equipped with the advanced W87-1 warhead, it aims to bolster the U.S. nuclear triad.

-Despite challenges, including cybersecurity expenses and a Nunn-McCurdy Act breach, the Sentinel is crucial for future arms control leverage and modernized deterrence capabilities, ensuring the U.S. negotiates from a position of strength.

When Will the New U.S. Sentinel ICBM Be Ready?

The number of Chinese nuclear warheads has been estimated at 500 for the last few years. But now the Chinese may have 600, according to the latest China military power report from the U.S. Department of Defense. Russia has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, with 5,580 active and inactive warheads. Iran may be getting the bomb soon. Thus, the United States must update its nuclear arsenal to keep up—the hopes of modernization center around the new LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM.

The Sentinel Is Replacing an Old ICBM

The Sentinel ICBM was initially called the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent. The Air Force wants to replace the aging Minuteman III since it was first fielded in 1970. The Minuteman III has been upgraded over the years. 

However, a new ICBM is needed since the Minuteman III still uses some of the original parts and components from the 1970s – rendering it obsolete.  

There are 400 Minuteman IIIs still in use today. Minuteman IIIs are deployed at missile silos at F.E. Warren Air Force Base (AFB), Wyoming; Malmstrom AFB, Montana; and Minot AFB, North Dakota.

DOD and DOE Compete for Funding and Influence

Nuclear weapons in the United States can be challenging to analyze since their deployment and development are split between the Air Force and the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The FY25 defense budget request for the Sentinel was $3.7 billion. For the NNSA, the request was $1.1 billion.  

Congress Fully Funds Sentinel ICBM

There was good news for the Sentinel in the FY25 National Defense Authorization Act. Sentinel was “plussed-up” $200 million to ensure the program’s total expenditure was $3.9 billion. NNSA was granted $20 billion for all weapons activities, meaning the Department of Energy fully funded Sentinel.

NNSA will be working on the new W87-1 nuclear warhead for the Sentinel. This will be one of the most potent warheads in the U.S. nuclear triad. Like other ICBMs, the Sentinel will be able to reach targets around the world in about 30 minutes. The warhead is released during the midpoint of the flight, and it descends toward the target. The first ICBMS were deployed in 1959, and these missiles are always on alert and standby for launch. 

Minuteman IIIs have undergone several modernization updates known as life extensions beginning in the Cold War and after. Air Force, Department of Energy leaders, and Congress members have been concerned for decades about the Minuteman III’s reliability. In 2014, policymakers decided to begin the process of replacing the Minuteman IIIs. The Sentinel should be deployed by 2075. 

The Air Force and the Department of Energy are enthused about the Sentinel, and the agencies plan to build 634 missiles. The Air Force wants to maintain “450 silos and more than 600 facilities across almost 40,000 square miles,” according to USNI News.

ICBM attack diagram. Image: Creative Commons.

Critical Acquisition Law Is Triggered

The Sentinel has endured some problems. In January 2024, the program informed Congress that it was over budget. There was a 37 percent cost overrun. Each missile was supposed to cost $118 million and that increased to $162 million. This was deemed to be a violation of the Nunn-McCurdy Act. The law requires the Air Force to inform Congress that it will “certify that the program is essential to national security, has no cheaper alternatives, and cannot be terminated. It also mandates that DOD develop and validate new cost estimates and program milestones and submit this information to Congress,” the Congressional Research Service wrote.

So far, the Sentinel program has complied with these requirements. However, one of the biggest cost overruns has been attributed to cyber security, which ensures that no government or non-state actor steals secrets from the Air Force and NNSA. Launch systems and program command and control aspects have also been expensive. Due to these cost overruns and additional delays with the rocket motor, the Sentinel may not be ready to test until 2026. This is a three-year delay from what was initially planned.

Time to Focus and Improve Performance

The Air Force and NNSA must get its act together for the Sentinel. Think tanks that preach government accountability and cost-cutting regarding weapons systems point out that the Sentinel program has wasted money and time. 

Sentinel ICBM U.S. Air Force

Sentinel ICBM U.S. Air Force

However, the United States must move on from the Minuteman III. This is a hugely important update to the country’s nuclear deterrence mission. China and Russia are moving forward with their programs for nuclear deterrence. 

If arms control efforts with China are ever to be conducted (the Chinese have walked away from arms control talks), the United States must negotiate from a position of strength. That means a fully deployed Sentinel.

It doesn’t look like this ICBM will be ready until the 2030s, and that date cannot come soon enough.  

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood 

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.