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Last week was a disaster. 

Not just with my Tennessee Vols getting destroyed by Ohio State — congrats to the Buckeyes — but because I managed to take all three underdogs on the road to cover Saturday and all three home favorites smoked them. None of the Saturday games were remotely close either.

For as much as I’ve looked forward to an expanded playoff for decades, Saturday was a major buzzkill.  

I did get Notre Dame blowing out Indiana correct, however, so at least I got one game correct. 

As a result, we went 2-6 in the first round of the playoffs, dropping our season record to 86-105. 

I’m getting these picks up a full week early because I leave town the day after Christmas and I want Santa Clay to provide as many gifts for the people as is possible in advance of Christmas. 

So let’s roll with eight winners for the playoff week two. 

Penn State -10.5 vs. Boise State and the under 52.5

I think Penn State will be able to stack the line and stop Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty from being able to run on them. 

If that happens, I don’t buy Boise State’s ability to make plays through the air. 

Dec 21, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Southern Methodist Mustangs in the first round of the College Football Playoff at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

Meanwhile, I think the combination of the Penn State offense — Drew Allar is good for a couple of big plays — and the bludgeoning of the run game plus a playmaking defense will gradually create distance between the teams. 

Give me Penn State 31-10 for an easy cover and an under. 

Texas -13.5 vs. Arizona State and the under 51.5

Texas has been inconsistent on offense, but their defense has tended to make plays and shut down opponents all season long. 

Ultimately, I just don’t think the Sun Devils have the horses — beyond Cam Skattebo, who I think the Longhorns will take out of the game — to make plays against an incredibly stout Longhorn defense. 

Dec 7, 2024; Arlington, TX, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) scores a rushing touchdown against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Toss in the explosion we saw in the running game against Clemson and the continued wrinkles of Arch Manning in the Texas offense and hook ’em puts the Sun Devils to bed early Saturday morning. 

Longhorns 35, Sun Devils 14

Ohio State -2.5 vs. Oregon and the over 54.5

Expect a shootout in the Rose Bowl. 

Pity poor Oregon, they have the number one overall seed and somehow get the toughest match up for the quarterfinal, yet another seeding failure from the playoff committee. 

We’ve already seen these teams go for 30+ earlier in the season at Oregon, now there’s one thing I’m confident of — the Buckeyes are calling plays aggressively, just like they did against Tennessee. They may lose, but it’s not going to be trying to pound the football in a rush attack.  

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) leaves the field carrying a rose following the 42-17 win over the Tennessee Volunteers in the College Football Playoff first round game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Dec. 21, 2024. Ohio State will face Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

And as good as Oregon has been this year, and they’re the only undefeated team left, Penn State ran all over them in the Big Ten title game. 

I think the Ducks know they need 30+ to win this game. 

Give me Ohio State 35-31 for the win, the cover, and the over. 

Georgia -2 vs. Notre Dame and the under 44.5

Despite being the two seed, Georgia, like Oregon, has a tougher road than the five and six seeds do in the quarterfinals. 

My blood bank guarantee of the weekend in these playoff games is the under in Georgia-Notre Dame. 

Georgia defensive back Daylen Everette (6) celebrates with his teammates after picking off a pass from Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) during the second half of the SEC championship game against Texas in Atlanta, on Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024.

The Bulldogs will be playing with a second string quarterback and as a result Kirby Smart is going to lean on his defense even more than usual. 

With a healthy, rested Georgia team that has been battle tested from the toughest schedule in college football this season, I think Georgia pulls away from the Fighting Irish and wins 24-13 to give us an under and a double digit victory to close out the playoff games. 

…

There you have it, boys and girls, eight winners from Santa Clay being posted on Christmas Eve. 

Now I’m back to the Christmas movies and the eating and drinking to excess. 

Love you guys and thanks for your support of OutKick this year. 

You won’t see me again on here until Jan. 2. 

Enjoy the games and let’s get rich, kids.