Four Locks, Excuse Me Picks, Remaining On My Circa Million VI NFL Week 16 Card

We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE.

After back-to-back 4-1 weeks, I’m booming with confidence entering Week 16 of the Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest. I know I’m probably jinxing myself by even saying that, but I’m feeling it. If I don’t go 4-1 or better again this week, I’ll admit to being a dipsh*t and move on.

Week 15 Recap: 4-1 

1. Carolina Panthers (-2.5) ❌
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) ✅
3. Atlanta Falcons (-4) ✅
4. Green Bay Packers (-2.5) ✅
5. Houston Texans (-2.5) ✅

It’s easy for me to be confident after correctly picking the Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 in their 34-27 win over the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football earlier this week. I’m sure I’ll get humbled this week though. After all, I’m 38-37 through the first 15 weeks of the Circa Million VI, which is tied for 2,327th out of 5,632 entries. 

Circa Million VI NFL Week 16 Selections

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

1. San Francisco 49ers (Pick ‘Em)
2. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) ✅
3. Los Angeles Rams (-3)
4. Chicago Bears (+6.5)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (+6)

Circa Million VI #1: 49ers (Pick ‘Em) at Miami Dolphins 

The biggest question about this game is “Which 6-8 team will be more motivated”? San Francisco has better underlying metrics, a more talented roster, and a better head coach. With that in mind, I only see the 49ers losing this game if they come in flat since it would take a miracle for them to sneak into the playoffs. 

Otherwise, Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is from Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan’s coaching tree. Whenever it’s a match-up between the master and pupil, I always pick the master. Especially when the master has a rest advantage over the pupil. Plus, Shanahan has to prove to people that his team hasn’t quit on him.

This leads me to my next point: The Niners should be the most motivated team in the NFL this week, regardless of their record. They rightfully trashed now-suspended LB De’Vondre Campbell for quitting on his team in San Francisco’s 12-6 loss to the Rams last week. By “they”, I specifically mean Shanahan, Pro Bowl CB Charvarius Ward, and All-Pro TE George Kittle. 

Sure, the Dolphins have a better chance of sneaking into the AFC playoffs than the Niners do in the NFC. But, Miami’s situation is more negative because everyone knows QB Tua Tagovailoa and McDaniel are meh. Tua is a good, not great, quarterback, and the NFL figured McDaniel out. The 49ers are having an unlucky year like most teams do after losing the Super Bowl.

READ: Shawne Merriman Thinks De’Vondre Campbell’s Career Is Over Unless He Apologizes (And Means It)

Ultimately, this is Wrong Team Favored. San Francisco was a -1 favorite over Miami on DraftKings’ look-ahead line in the preseason. They are both 6-8 straight up (SU) and 5-9 against the spread (ATS) and have similar injury situations. If things were equal, the 49ers would still be slight favorites in this game. 

However, they aren’t “equal” because the Niners will be more motivated after one of their teammates quit mid-game last week. The bottom line is you cannot say the things San Francisco did last week and lay an egg. For what it’s worth, the “49ers as a pick ’em” is one of my favorite bets so far this season. 

(LISTEN to 49ers-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

_____________________________

Pick #2: Denver Broncos at Chargers (-2.5) ✅

Call me “Mr. Thursday Night Football”. I’m 15-2 in Thursday Night Football picks in the Circa Million NFL handicapping contest since the beginning of last season. My only two losses are with the b*tch-a** Dolphins against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 this season, and then Thanksgiving 2024 at the Packers. 

(LISTEN to Broncos-Chargers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

_____________________________

Pick #3: Rams (-3) at New York Jets

LAR’s Sean McVay vs. NYJ interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich is the biggest coaching mismatch this week, which says a lot since two of the best teams in the NFL (Green Bay and the Detroit Lions) are also facing lame-duck coaches. Yet, McVay has been to the Super Bowl twice, winning it in 2022. Ulbrich, on the other hand, will be an assistant coach for another team next year. 

Furthermore, I’m fading Jets QB Aaron Rodgers‘ old a** after he beat the 3-11 Jacksonville Jaguars in a nail-biter last week. Rodgers had a season-high 120.0 QB Rating vs. the Jaguars with 289 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Well, whoop-de-bleeping-doo. Jacksonville’s pass defense is a joke. 

For instance, this free advanced analytics site called “RBSDM.com” has dropback EPA, and the Jaguars are last in defensive dropback EPA with a bullet. In fact, the gap from them to the second-worst team in defensive dropback EPA (New England Patriots) is wider than the distance from the Patriots to the 17th-ranked team on that metric (Cleveland Browns). 

More importantly, Rams QB Matt Stafford has been ballin’ since WR Puka Nacua returned from his injury for their 30-20 win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8, which I called by the way. When Puka was out from most of Week 1 to Week 8, Stafford had an 83.6 QB Rating with 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Since Puka’s return, Stafford has a 104.6 QB Rating with 16 TDs and 3 INTs. 

Also, I keep hearing people say that the Rams don’t need this game because their last two games are divisional contests with massive playoff implications. That’s just lazy analysis. Why would the 8-6 Rams, who have the same record as the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals are 7-7, not care about this game? WTF are we talking about? 

Not only does LAR need every game, but Rodgers dominated Stafford when they both played in the NFC North. Of course, Stafford wants revenge. This could be his last time facing Rodgers. Motivation aside, McVay owns this time of the year. The Rams are 18-7 SU and 20-5 ATS in December with a +5.0 spread differential under McVay. 

(LISTEN to Rams-Jets analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

_____________________________

Pick #4: Detroit Lions at Bears (+6.5)

No one is touching Chicago, which is on an eight-game losing skid (3-5 ATS), and bettors will excuse Detroit’s 48-42 loss to the Bills last week. But, this is the Bears’ Super Bowl. And it could be a flat spot for the Lions after three straight high-profile games with a revenge game vs. the 49ers and a game to win the NFC North vs. Vikings on deck. 

Moreover, I’m fading Detroit QB Jared Goff outdoors in the winter. It will be brick–cold in Chicago Sunday and Goff is 3-6 SU outdoors in December, including losses in both visits to Chicago. Once last year. Once in 2018 while playing for the 11-2 Rams, who went to the Super Bowl that season. Goff has a 50.6% completion rate and 34.8 QB Rating in those games. 

Bears QB Caleb Williams will have a big game Sunday. Williams led Chicago on a second-half comeback in their 23-20 loss to Detroit Thanksgiving. He threw for 256 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Granted, Williams also puked all over himself on the final drive to tie or win the game, costing now-former Bears head coach Matt Eberflus his job. 

Regardless, Williams has the rookie record for most consecutive passes without an interception, which is still active, and makes eye-popping plays weekly. Between Goff being outdoors and Williams facing Detroit’s banged-up defense, Chicago can lose by one-score for a seventh time this season, if not steal this game outright. 

(LISTEN to Lions-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

_____________________________

Pick #5: Steelers (+6) at Baltimore Ravens

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.