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Yesterday I pointed out that Justin Trudeau was doing a little tap dance (shuffling his cabinet ministers) aimed at changing the subject as an increasing number of MPs in his own party were calling for him to step down. But so long as Trudeau had the support of the NDP and its leader Jagmeet Singh, there was nothing anyone could really do to force his hand.

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Well, as of today that finally seems to have changed. Singh released a statement saying “the NDP will vote to bring this government down.”

In case you missed the backstory here, the NDP is a left-wing party that has been the minority partner in Trudeau’s Liberal Party government. Trudeau needed the NDP because the Liberals didn’t have enough seats in Parliament to form a government on their own. So the NDP made an agreement to back Trudeau’s agenda (in exchange for certain concessions the NDP wanted) and also to protect him if a vote of no confidence was called. It’s what’s known as a supply-and-confidence agreement. 

Back in September, Singh announced he was tearing up that agreement because he was disappointed in Trudeau. However, while that meant that the NDP wouldn’t automatically vote to protect Trudeau, Singh stopped short of actually calling for a new election or even allowing his members to vote for one. In fact, after tearing up the agreement, his party has voted to support Trudeau eight times. 

Politically speaking, Singh wants to distance himself from Trudeau, who is deeply unpopular, but because he runs a left-wing party he also didn’t want to see the conservatives call an election and take over the government, which is what all the polls say would happen. It’s really a no win situation for him.

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So Trudeau has been hanging on because Jagmeet Singh refused to allow a vote that would oust him, but this week, after Trudeau’s Finance Minister quit and members of his own party started publicly calling for him to step down, Singh obviously changed his mind.

“The Trudeau Liberals said a lot of the right things,” Mr. Singh wrote. “Then they let people down again and again. Justin Trudeau failed in his biggest job as prime minister: to work for the people.”

“The Liberals,’’ he added, “don’t deserve another chance.”

The Conservative Party is likely to back any such motion, which, if passed, would lead to an immediate general election.

And it looks like the Bloc Quebecois, another minority party to the left of Trudeau’s Liberals, is also not going to save him.

The leader of the Bloc Quebecois, a larger opposition party, promised to back the motion and said there was no scenario where Trudeau survived…

“We cannot have a chaotic clown show running our government into the ground. What is clear is that Justin Trudeau does not have the confidence of Parliament,” Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre told reporters.

So it looks like this is really over, except for one thing. Parliament is out of session. Singh waited until everyone had gone home to make this statement, something that Pierre Poilievre, leader of the conservatives was quick to point out.

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The rest of the tweet reads:

You did the same stunt in September, claiming you’d no longer prop Trudeau up. Then you went back on your word and voted 8 times AGAINST AN ELECTION & for your boss Trudeau.

Just 11 days ago you voted against a non-confidence motion filled with your own words. Had you voted the other way, we’d be almost half-way through the election now. 

Only common sense Conservatives can and will replace this costly NDP-Liberal clown show.

In theory, Parliament could be called back into session to hold a no confidence vote but that seems unlikely. Instead, Trudeau will probably prorogue Parliament again and prevent Singh from carrying out his threat anytime soon.

Parliament is not scheduled to return until Jan. 27. But many political observers expect that Mr. Trudeau could, in essence, suspend Parliament and delay its return, preventing Mr. Singh from entering a no-confidence vote.

However, proroguing would also mean setting up a leadership race to see who is going to take over for Trudeau as party leader going forward. So there are still more delays and finagling that can happen but it really is true that Trudeau’s goose is cooked this time and his entire Liberal Party will be cooked with him soon enough.

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A spring election is now guaranteed, leaving Trudeau with “zero options”, said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin.

“He will have to step down and will almost certainly need to prorogue parliament to avoid the collapse of his government,” he said.

Here’s some discussion of the news from CTV: