Clay Travis’ College Football Picks, Playoff Edition: Expect A War Between Tennessee And Ohio State

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On Friday, the 12 team college football playoff is here.

I hope all of you take a moment to enjoy that we’ve finally reached a legit playoff era.

Because a generation ago, that would have seemed impossible.

And now here we are.

I can’t wait.

We went 4-3 last week in the conference title games to run our season record to 84-99, which is bad, but at least we have reversed the slide and actually been positive for the past month or so.

Thankfully, Santa Clay is here to help ensure you get rich with eight winners, yep, totals and point spreads, for all four games this weekend.

Indiana at Notre Dame -7 and the over 51.5

The Fighting Irish have been solid all season, except for the disaster against Northern Illinois.

Meanwhile Indiana, which has only played one top 25 team all year – Ohio State – and gotten smoked when that game happened, is on the road for the Friday night kick in South Bend.

What happens in the first college football playoff game of the 12-team era?

I think Notre Dame exposes Indiana and wins big.  

There was a ton of attention on Alabama vs. SMU for the final playoff spot debate, but I actually think Indiana is the weakest team in the playoff. I think Ole Miss, South Carolina and Alabama are all better than Indiana.  

And on Friday night, Notre Dame wins by double digits, notching a 38-21 win to get us an easy cover and hit the over too.

SMU +8.5 at Penn State and the under 54.5

I think this is the toughest game to predict in the opening round of the playoff.

Why?

Because neither team has played that many top teams.

SMU has zero top 25 wins all season and Penn State has just one, over Illinois, not a team that I think many people would consider to be elite.

So what do we expect on Saturday in Happy Valley when these two teams match up?

A defensive battle.

Penn State wins, but only by three, 23-20 is your final.

Clemson +12 at Texas and the under 51.5

I’ll be honest with you, taking Clemson +12 is a bet that the Tigers are far more battle hardened by their schedule than Texas is by its own schedule.

Yes, Texas plays in the SEC and Clemson is 0-2 against the SEC this year, getting completely dominated by Georgia and losing a close defensive battle against South Carolina. But I think the Tigers, playing with no pressure and limited expectations, put a real scare into the Longhorns.

Ultimately, I think Texas will find a way to win Saturday in Austin, but I expect both defenses to play well and take control of this game.

The final?

Texas 24 Clemson 17.

Giving us a double win here too.

Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State and the under 45.5

This is the most fascinating game of the opening college football weekend because I think it can go in so many different directions.

If Tennessee wins, Ohio State might fire Ryan Day.

But if Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes might win the national title and give Ryan Day a multi-year extension.

Neither of these outcomes is crazy at all.

Here’s what I think happens – this is a low scoring, brutally ugly football game that Ohio State wins 20-17 on a late score.

I think Tennessee matches up well with Ohio State given the Vol defensive line against a mediocre Ohio State offensive line. In theory, Tennessee should win this matchup. But the Georgia game gives me a real pause here. Against Georgia, the Tennessee defensive line, which I expected to dominate, got whipped by the Georgia offensive line and that allowed Carson Beck to have his best game of the season.

I’m not sold on Will Howard, but it feels to me like Ohio State will get rid of the football quickly and run a ton of bubble screens, slants and screen passes. The Buckeyes may lose, but they’re not doing it in a trench warfare style game. So I think they will give their wide receivers a ton of chances to make plays.

As long as Will Howard makes the easy throws and doesn’t turn it over, Ohio State should be in decent shape because I don’t think the Vol offense will score that many.  

As for Tennessee, given Dylan Sampson’s success running the football, the defensive game plan is simple: Ohio State is going to sell out to stop the run and dare Nico and the Vol wide receivers to beat them. And I just haven’t seen enough consistent big plays in the Tennessee passing game for me to believe that’s going to happen.  

Which is why I’m taking the under in this game.

As for the outcome, Tennessee’s road wins this year are at Oklahoma and at Vanderbilt. The latter game wasn’t even a true road game since Volunteer fans made up the majority of the crowd. So Tennessee has only won one true road game at Oklahoma. (Tennessee also won a neutral site game against N.C. State.)

Could the Vols win a road game against a really good opponent?

Yes.

But they haven’t done it, basically, for the entire Josh Heupel era. (LSU in 2022 is probably the best Heupel road win so far.)

Until it happens, it’s hard to predict it.

Ohio State wins 20-17, giving us a Vol cover and an under hit.

…

There you have it, boys and girls, Santa Clay is bringing you eight winners for Christmas.

Hope y’all enjoy the games as much as I will.