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Key Points: The F-35 Lightning II, hailed as a game-changer, faces significant challenges. Its $2 trillion lifetime cost makes it the most expensive defense program in history, compounded by high maintenance costs and unresolved thermal management issues.

-Rising expenses have led the U.S. military to limit flight hours, impacting training and readiness.

-Safety concerns persist with multiple crashes since 2014, and aircraft availability remains below target, with mission-capable rates at just 51% in 2023. Critics like Elon Musk propose drones as alternatives, but the F-35’s role as a drone mothership offers a compromise.

-Despite its issues, the F-35 proves its worth in combat scenarios.

F-35 Problems: The $2 Trillion Fighter Facing Mounting Challenges

The F-35 Lightning II has its share of detractors and proponents. The latest major critic is Elon Musk, the billionaire named to co-head the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) for the incoming Trump administration. Musk said recently that the F-35 is built by “idiots” and should be replaced by drones. However, the F-35 program can be saluted because this year it achieved an important distinction called “full-rate production.” This is a positive signal that the F-35 program should maintain its current level of construction. While cancellation of the F-35 is unlikely, there are at least five major problems associated with it.

How Could the Cost Run That High?

The first trouble for the airframe is cost. The F-35 will cost over $2 trillion over the next several decades. This makes it the most expensive defense acquisition program in history. Keeping the Lightning II in the air is also head-splitting. Sustainability costs run about $1.6 trillion – a 44 percent increase since 2018. Then there is the money that goes to Lockheed Martin – we are talking about $442 billion in development and procurement. That results in the over $2 trillion total costs until 2088 when the Department of Defense believes the F-35 will be completely out of service. 

The Pentagon Doesn’t Know How Much It Will Cost for Certain Repairs

Next is the problem of upgrades, enhancements, and repairs. The F-35 is a flying computer, and it constantly requires updates and modernization. Additionally, the F-35’s engine and thermal management systems need to be fixed. The faults in this system can cause the radar to overheat. But the Department of Defense hasn’t even figured out how these repairs will be accomplished. This means that we don’t even know how much this will add to the sustainability costs mentioned above. It could cost the taxpayer even more money in the coming years.

Flying Less to Save Money Defeats the Purpose 

Another problem is that the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps will be flying the F-35 less due to the sustainability costs. This doesn’t make sense. All that money should yield an airplane that can stay in the air more and more each year. Instead, the service branches say, “This is really expensive, so let’s keep the F-35 on the ground more.” That defeats the purpose of having such a great fighter. It should be flown more – not less. Without ample flight hours, training and readiness is reduced.

The active duty 388th and Reserve 419th Fighter Wings conducted an F-35A Combat Power Exercise with 52 aircraft at Hill AFB, Utah, Jan. 6, 2020. 388th Fighter Wing photo via Facebook.

The Safety Record Is Less Than Desired

The number of accidents, crashes, and mishaps is too numerous to completely describe in this article. There has been some sort of incident, some of them deadly, in 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. That is at least eight accidents around the world since 2014. This raises questions about the airplane’s safety record.

Sorry, This Fighter Is Not Available

Last is the problem of aircraft availability. The Department of Defense calls this issue reliability, maintainability, and availability (RMA) problems. In 2023, the F-35 was only available for operations 51 percent of the time. The goal is 65 percent. “Available” means the F-35 can accomplish at least one of its many missions during flight. 

“The RMA performance of the F-35 has been the subject of numerous congressional hearings and Government Accountability Office reports over the years, and the Pentagon has launched many initiatives meant to get mission capability rates up,” according to AirandSpaceForces.com.     

DOGE Against the F-35 Lightning II

So, is Elon Musk correct?

Should the F-35 be replaced by drones?

That’s being too simplistic. The F-35 can deploy a “Loyal Wingman” – a drone that can be tethered to the manned airplane to conduct reconnaissance, fire stand-off missiles, or figure out bomb damage assessment. So, if the F-35 is a drone mothership, you can still get the advantages of unmanned flights without losing a pilot.

It is simply too late to cancel the F-35, there are just too many of the stealth fighters around the world that would need to be updated and maintained. To really save money, the F-35 program needed to be cancelled a decade ago.

F-35 AF-184 flown by Lt. Cdr. Jonathan 'Dos' Beaton, in Owen's Moa, with Whitney and snowcapped Sierra Nevadas in background

F-35 AF-184 flown by Lt. Cdr. Jonathan ‘Dos’ Beaton, in Owen’s Moa, with Whitney and snowcapped Sierra Nevadas in background.

Maybe all the money and downsides are worth it. The F-35I, the variant flown by Israel, just had an excellent mission over Iran. No F-35Is were lost and the stealth warbird eliminated numerous targets, including Iranian surface-to-air missile systems. This shows that the F-35 can be used for what it was intended for – radar-evading deep strikes that result in a softening of the enemy’s air defenses to prep for follow-on missions from strategic bombers. This sounds like a recipe for success.

However, the F-35 program has endured major problems. The total cost is just way too high. The Department of Defense hasn’t estimated how much repairs will be to fix some of the fighters’ thermal management systems. The service branches are flying the airplane less to save money. There have been numerous mishaps and accidents. And finally, when pilots need to fly the fighter, it is often not available. This means that Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency will be scrutinizing this program for cuts, if not all out cancellation. It will be interesting to see if the F-35 can survive until the end of the decade.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood 

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.