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I was doubtful for over a year that Joe Biden would end up being the Democratic nominee, because the numbers don’t lie. His disapproval, the country’s right track/wrong track polling, and the declining mental acuity on display each successive day by the octogenarian President was too much headwind to overcome. July’s bait and switch was no surprise to anyone seriously watching American politics. The pressure points were too painful for the Democratic elites not to act.  

After the initial media-fueled honeymoon for Biden’s replacement, Vice-President Kamala Harris, the data continued to pour in and regardless of the poll, the underlying numbers indicated the odds of Donald Trump winning in November, and winning beyond the margin of cheat, was just as likely as Biden being tossed out like last week’s garbage. Donald Trump all but tied his Harris in the favorability index, making up an 18-point deficit he had with Biden, which essentially neutralized the intensity of the anti-Trump vote. And the inroads the former and future President made with Latinos, Blacks, Jews, women, independents, young voters, and labor made the chance of Harris winning winnow by the day. And that’s before you add in Harris’ innate gift to be the singularly worst campaigner in American political history. 

The same set of dynamics Americans saw in October and early November seem to be shaping up with our neighbors up north, and that means there’s about to be political upheaval in Canada. After almost a decade of Liberal rule under Justin “Fidelito” Trudeau, the Conservatives are about to have their turn in power for the next few years. 

The same economics that plague the United States – high inflation, wage stagnation, flat job growth, an overbearing regulatory state, promises of tax hikes, mixed in with higher rates of crime and not winning the Stanley Cup since 1993, and you’ve got a toxic mix of truly unhappy Canucks ready to vote the bums out.

Last week, PM Trudeau lectured American voters on not taking the opportunity to elect the first woman president in history. This was rich coming from a man who has a storied track record of beating women, politically speaking, of course, to climb the ladder in Canadian politics. He defeated Mary Deros in 2006 to become leader of the Liberal party, and quashed a challenge from Joyce Murray in early 2013. The Trudeau scolding, of course, was merely a diversion to wallpaper over the trolling by President-Elect Trump about annexing Canada as the 51st state and the specter of tariffs on the horizon compounding Canada’s economic difficulties. It didn’t work. 

Several members of Trudeau’s cabinet have resigned in recent weeks, but Monday’s resignation of Cynthia Freeland, Trudeau’s deputy prime minister and minister of finance, was really the mortal blow to his tenure leading Canada. She simply could no longer abide by Trudeau offering up the equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic and not deal with the coming tariff threat with the incoming Trump administration, tariffs that would be devastating to Canada. With blood in the water, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, looked to strike the final nail in Trudeau’s political coffin. 

The Liberals’ coalition partner, the New Democrat Party, are the only faction left giving Trudeau a toehold on the job a bit longer. But NDP’s leader, Jagmeet Singh, is faltering. He has repeatedly called for Trudeau to resign, but thus far has refused to support a vote of no confidence. His personal pension as a member of Parliament isn’t fully vested until he serves in office through March. He wants to make sure the doomed government limps along for four more months so that he gets his before Canada gets theirs, in essence. 

Poilievre did move for a no confidence vote yesterday, and his speech right before the vote was one for the ages. It’s worth every minute of your time to watch. 

The vote was very close, but Trudeau hung on because as predicted, NDP’s Singh did vote for his own retirement parachute over the good of the nation. Afterward, Singh tried desperately to play on both sides of the fence – demanding Trudeau resign while not going along with what vast majority of the country wants – new elections. 

The jeering is visceral because of the rank hypocrisy of Singh’s stance. Few politicians ever successfully get away with rhetoric about how outrageous it is for politicians to put their personal interests ahead of the country while casting a vote expressing doing that very thing. 

So change is coming. There are rumors that Trudeau is already making plans to head for the exits as soon as this week. At worst, once Singh’s March pension ship comes into port, the government will fall and a national election will take place. What does polling look like? 

Abacus is the most reliable and detailed polling we have, and it’s showing a wipeout for Liberals and NDP on the horizon, and the magnitude of the tsunami coming increases every day this untenable circus in Ottawa continues. 

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Liberals are polling to win only 10 seats in a new Parliament? Ten? Hooboy. Again, it’s one poll, but I don’t think Ann Selzer is running this one, so it’s probably not too far off. By the way, to see how the unfolding drama is affecting polling almost on a daily basis, here’s the latest data.

Trudeau has been in power for nine years. There’s nothing new, novel, or winsome about him anymore. He’s worn out his welcome and refuses to step aside for someone else in his party to pick up the puck and skate across the blue line. That’s a hockey reference, of course, which is lost on Trudeau according to John Ondrasik, who took mocking this week literally to a new art form. 

Change is coming. It’s not just a possibility, it’s a lock. Pierre Poilievre will lead Canada, and will lead it  soon. The Conservative leader held a press conference after the no confidence vote, and like Donald Trump’s presser at Mar-A-Lago Monday, gave a tour de force. 

The CBC, Canadian Broadcast Company, is Canada’s official state regime media. They’re populated by lefties, broadcasting to lefties, and prefer only talking to lefties about lefties. A question was asked about the budget and Canada’s spending problems, and Poilievre rejected the premise entirely. 

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On the consequences of Trudeau’s collapsing cabinet and NDP rejecting the no confidence vote…

Poilievre reminded people of the hypocrisy of Justin Trudeau when he scolded American voters for rejecting Kamala Harris in November. 

I mentioned the mocking going on regarding Trudeau as being a hockey poseur. The mockery isn’t exclusively taking place at the Prime Minister’s expense. Jagmeet Singh is in the wringer as well. There has been a GoFundMe site set up to benefit Singh, trying to raise enough money to cover his pension so he can actually vote on Canada’s concerns instead of his own. 

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The amount raised? $65 bucks Canadian. That’s about $45 bucks American. Long way to go, but the lampooning of Canada’s political left is taking its toll. You can see and hear it, and the Trump effect is accelerating the desire for change up north. 

Soon.