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Key Points: Russia’s Su-57 Felon, touted as a fifth-generation fighter, impressed audiences at the Zhuhai Airshow despite facing challenges since its inception.

-Initially designed for export, Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stifled production, as the Su-57 relied on Western subsystems.

-While cheaper than the American F-35 or F-22, its absence from Ukraine’s skies raised doubts about its capabilities.

-The fighter’s recent showcase reignited interest, with Algeria speculated as the first foreign buyer.

-Still, Russia must adapt the Felon  to replace its Western components and secure broader export markets if it hopes to compete against other advanced fifth-generation fighters.

Russia’s Su-57: Can It Compete with Western 5th-Gen Fighters?

They say that Russia’s Su-57 “Felon” is not worth its price.

But for a fifth-generation warplane the Su-57 is a steal.

It’s far cheaper than either the United States’ F-35 Lightning II or the F-22A Raptor. And it is designed to be an exportable model, unlike China’s Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon.” In fact, in terms of competition, Russia is more likely to face a stiffer export challenge from China’s J-35 than the American F-35. Still, detractors in the West keep dumping on the bird.

This is a mistake. After all, the Russians proved the world wrong at the recent Zhuhai Airshow in Guangdong, China. At what future historians will likely label as a transformative moment in the development of this cycle of great power competition, the Russians silenced their critics with the impressive display that the Su-57 put on. Indeed, after years of languishing in relative obscurity, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s State Defense Agency, announced its first foreign purchase order at the conclusion of the Zhuhai Air Show.

Where is It Going?

Speculation as to who is the purchaser of the craft has been rampant. The Su-57 was designed to be an export bird, to boost Russia’s important arms industry. But the Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine and the subsequent proxy war it sparked between NATO and itself, led to the imposition of onerous sanctions.

While Russia has survived (indeed, in some key instances, Russia has thrived) under the weight of the Western sanctions, the Su-57 program has been especially harmed. That’s because, as an airframe that was designed primarily for export, the Russians opted to build the Felon with a heavy dependence on Western subsystems.

The logic at the time was that, by building the Su-57 with more Western components, it would make the plane that much easier to sell to many more customers than the usual litter of Russian arms export partners. Once the sanctions went into effect, though, the Su-57 program was choked off due to a lack of available Western supplies. 

Although the Su-57 is cheaper than some of the American equivalents (Western press argues that the Su-57 is more of a fourth-generation-plus warplane than an actual fifth-generation bird), its complexity still made it an expensive choice for the Russian Air Force, which is why only 76 were ordered by Moscow.

Russia’s decision to export the bird was to help offset the cost. Here again, though, the Russians have faced complications resulting from their invasion of neighboring Ukraine. The Su-57’s potential client list became much smaller than was originally intended because Western sanctions were imposed on any state that attempted to purchase the plane from Russia as long as the Russians maintained their war against Ukraine.

Su-57. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

These moves by the West have, therefore, complicated the development of the Su-57. They did not, however, stop them entirely as the Russian demonstration at the Zhuhai Airshow proved. 

Even if the Russians are able to adapt the bird to not rely upon Western systems (an effort that is being undertaken by Moscow), with the Ukraine War demanding Russia’s full attention and resources, the Su-57 was simply not a priority—especially because cheaper and older Soviet-era airframes have been just as effective for Russia in Ukraine as would the more expensive, newer systems, like the Su-57. 

The lack of Su-57s in the skies of Ukraine, though, further harmed its export potential, as possible buyers wondered as to why the Russians weren’t deploying their supposedly advanced bird to wage “existential” war upon the Ukrainians.

Ultimately, the Russians didn’t want to risk their expensive and rare Su-57 fleet getting downed by what has proven to be effective NATO-provided Ukrainian air defenses. 

An Interesting Future for the Su-57

Although, it should be noted that the only serious losses of the Su-57 have been from unconventional Ukrainian attacks directed against these planes while they were still housed at their airbases. But, it wasn’t a good look for the Russians. Regardless of what the perceptions have been, the stunning display put on by the Su-57 at Zhuhai allayed many fears and doubts in the minds of possible buyers.

Russia's Su-57

Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Earlier this year, it was assumed that Indonesia, a nation in southeast Asia that Russia has spent an inordinate amount of time befriending, was a potential buyer of the craft. Now, however, the speculation has shifted to the possibility of Algeria being the buyer. While this is obviously a boost for Russia’s flagging Su-57 export program, the fact is that they need a much larger client base to make the bird worth this investment. 

And until Russia can find alternatives to the Western-produced technologies undergirding the Su-57, or until those onerous sanctions are curbed by the West, the Su-57 will continue struggling to find proper export markets.

Still, the Su-57 is an impressive plane. It is much more affordable than the alternatives. Once the Ukraine War ends, the other great powers with exportable fifth-generation planes will find the Su-57 to be stiff competition for them.

About the Author: 

Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior Editor at 19FortyFive.com and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, The American Spectator, to the National Interest. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.