Conservative 
Search
Trending
Current News
We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE.
Tuesday sucked for me in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup. Neither one of my “best bets” cashed. Fortunately, no one watched. Hopefully, Jay-Z didn’t tune into Inside The NBA either Tuesday since he “caught a stray” from Charles Barkley. Nonetheless, I’m going back to the court Wednesday in the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup with confidence.
It felt like I was finally hitting my stride betting on the NBA last week. I went 9-5 in the Association with a +28.4% return on investment and +2.1% closing line value while adding 4.30 units (u) to my bankroll. Let’s get back on track with the following picks for Wednesday.
NBA Cup 2024 Quarterfinals Betting Card: December 11
- UNDER 237.5 (-110) in Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
- Golden State Warriors moneyline (+108) at Houston Rockets via FanDuel, risking 1.08u.
UNDER 237.5 in Hawks at Knicks, 7 p.m. ET
New York (15-9) beat Atlanta (13-12) in their season’s first meeting 121-116 November 6 on a 226.5 total. That game had a 97.9 pace. For context, the average pace of an NBA game is 99.2. If Hawks-Knicks Part II has the same tempo, it’s likelier to be a lower-scoring game unless both teams shoot the lights out Wednesday.
Furthermore, primetime or playoff games have slower paces and less scoring. Tuesday’s two NBA Cup quarterfinals games scored 223 (Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks) and 222 points (Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder). Four of the seven NBA Cup 2023 knockout games combined for 234 points or fewer.
The New York Knicks host the Atlanta Falcons at Madison Square Garden Wednesday in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinals. (Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)
Also, this is an opportunity to fade the public, which likes betting Overs generally. Atlanta is 17-8 Over/Under (O/U) and New York is 14-8 O/U. Despite being “Over teams”, five of the Hawks’ past six games have gone Under 237.5 points, and five straight for the Knicks. They have gone Over in seven of their last 10 meetings, including last month.
Finally, Ben Taylor, the crew chief for this game, has a 7-12 O/U record this season. The other two on the crew have officiated more Overs. However, the three average totals for this game’s officials are 223.4 points per game (PPG) for both Taylor and Jacyn Goble and Natalie Sago is 228.1 PPG.
Prediction: New York 120, Hawks 108
- Don’t bet this Under until closer to tip-off. I have to “lock in” a bet now for content purposes. But, the public will probably steam this total to 238 or higher, so we might get a better number by being patient.
_____________________________
Warriors (+108) at Rockets, 9:30 p.m. ET
Golden State (14-9) has won and covered both meetings with Houston (16-8) this season despite not having Steph Curry for either. The Warriors held a 31-point lead in their 127-121 overtime win in Houston November 2. Then the Dubs held a game-high 15-point lead in their 99-93 home win over the Rockets Thursday.
Curry is healthy, but Houston C Alperen Sengun is listed as “questionable.” Sengun leads the Rockets with a +12.0 on/off net rating in non-garbage time, per CleaningTheGlass.com. He is Houston’s second-leading scorer (18.5 PPG), second-leading assist man (5.3), and leading rebounder (10.6). So, if Sengun misses this game, the Rockets are in trouble.
The Golden State Warriors visit the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center for the quarterfinals of the 2024 NBA Cup. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)
Ultimately, these teams have similar identities. Yet, Curry is by far the best player on the floor and the Warriors are a far better 3-point shooting team. Golden State makes 2.3 more 3-pointers per game than its opponents and Houston is 26th in 3-point percentage. If Sengun is out, it’ll be easier for the Warriors to extend their perimeter defense.
Prediction: Golden State 111, Houston 108
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.
