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Bellwether counties are counties that reliably vote for the winner of the winning presidential candidate. 

Just take a look below at a map of the top bellwether counties. The cells are blue if they voted for the person who won the election, and white if they voted against them. 

Something big stands out: 2020’s results compared to the rest of the map. 

In 1984, Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory was mirrored in the bellwether counties, with Reagan securing every single one. Following Reagan, George H.W. Bush continued this trend in 1988, losing only two bellwether counties.

Bill Clinton’s two-term presidency saw similar success in bellwether counties. In 1992, Clinton won every bellwether county, and his 1996 re-election saw him lose just one bellwether county.

George W. Bush’s elections also aligned closely with bellwether trends. In 2000, Bush won all bellwether counties, and all but one in 2004.

Barack Obama’s win followed the same trend. In 2008, Obama lost only one bellwether county, and all of them in 2012.

Donald Trump’s 2016 victory was notable for his clean sweep of all bellwether counties, signaling a significant shift in American politics. However, the 2020 election presented an unprecedented deviation: Biden won only one bellwether county, but still went on to win the presidency.

That had many suspecting the obvious.

And even more strange, bellwether states suddenly started voting in the direction of the winner  again in 2024, where Trump won all but two bellwether counties. 

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