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There’s no question who the world sees as the actual President of the United States, and it isn’t Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. 

Trump’s return to the world stage is being greeted with great fanfare, and his trip to France to participate in the grand re-opening of the Cathedral of Notre Dame is being treated as a state visit. 

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The current administration in Washington is participating–by sending the First Lady. Joe Biden remains at home, and that is just as well, given his proclivity for falling asleep while meeting with foreign leaders or wandering off. Biden may not be much older than Trump, but he is a spent force while Trump gains momentum. 

The reception of Trump on the world stage in 2024 is dramatically different than in 2017. Perhaps some of that is due to familiarity, perhaps some to resignation to reality, perhaps some is the relief that somebody is in charge, but I think the majority of it comes down to this: Trump is on the ascent, and all the leaders in Europe are on the ropes. 

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When Trump was first elected, he was portrayed as and seen as a buffoon in Europe–or should I say Western Europe, because the formerly communist states saw something very different than the older members of the European Union. Angela Merkel was the unofficial leader of Europe at the time, seen as a strong leader and a moral force to be reckoned with. The Tories were still doing well in the UK, France was arrogant as always, and Italy was as chaotic as ever. 

In the seven years since Trump was first elected Europe, already rather stagnant, has flailed. The intellectual and moral bankruptcy of the transnational elite has been laid bare. The UK and Germany, in particular, have seen their economies stagnate and Europe’s open borders have proven to be a disaster. 

Merkel’s famed moral leadership has led to the migrant crisis that is destroying Europe, and the Biden/NATO policies of the past four years have gifted us major wars, massive instability, and economic sclerosis. 

I don’t know whether the elite in Europe have grasped the scope of their error, although Kier Starmer is now attacking the very open borders he championed for years in response to public disgust with his leadership. Other European countries are likely to follow suit–ironic, given that the European Union continues to pressure Hungary and Poland about admitting asylees. 

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But there is no doubt that the Europeans see Trump as a strong leader at a time when the world needs strong leadership. They may not like him, but they definitely want to please him. 

During his first term, he was clearly, in their eyes, the ugly American who needed to be tamed or forced out of power. Now, as almost all these leaders are at the point where they may face their own political reckonings, they may even be relieved that Trump will set some rules and boundaries that reduce the chaos in the world. 

Whether they are relieved or merely reconciled to Trump’s re-ascendance to power, one thing is certain: this time around they will be bending the knee to Trump and not obstructing him at every turn. They are likely to use Trump’s strength on certain issues–climate change and immigration–as reasons to abandon failing policies in their own countries. 

Bet on it–at least one or two European countries will loosen up carbon restrictions to jumpstart their economies, blaming Trump for the weakening of the anti-fossil fuel consensus. As things stand, EU economies are being strangled by carbon restrictions, and the migration crisis may also be addressed as part of a larger backlash against open borders. 

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Perhaps I am wrong, and European countries will remain passive in the face of destruction–if Harris had won I would have bet on it–but I suspect that politicians in Europe (not the EU parliament, but national governments) will use the expansion of the Overton window brought by Trump to change course and act more rationally. 

Perhaps I am being overoptimistic–after all, I am still feeling a bit giddy about the election results. But Trump’s reception in France suggests that European leaders are pretty happy that Biden is leaving the stage and that buffoon Trump is back.