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What started as a sudden advance by Syrian opposition forces last weekend (see REPORT: Coup Underway in Damascus As Two Major Cities Fall to Islamist Insurgents; Assad and Family Flee) has cascaded into a rout of the Syrian army, opposition forces only about five miles from the heart of the Syrian capital of Damascus, and Bashar al-Assad’s allies cutting and running.

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Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive.

Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.

The move signaled a remarkable turn for Mr. al-Assad, whose government Iran has backed throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, and for Iran, which has used Syria as a key route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Guards personnel, some Iranian diplomatic staff, their families, and Iranian civilians were also being evacuated, according to the Iranian officials, two of them members of the Guards, and regional officials. Iranians began to leave Syria on Friday morning, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

Evacuations were ordered at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, and at bases of the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian and regional officials said. At least some of the embassy staff has departed.

On the way out the door, the Iranians counseled al-Assad to negotiate.

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To underscore the gravity of the situation, this was Iran’s foreign minister only 24 hours earlier.

Earlier in the week, the Russians informed Syria they had nothing more to offer.

Pleas for assistance from Turkey (lolol) have been rebuffed, and al-Assad is being encouraged to go into exile.

Any illusions al-Assad may have had that he had friends in the Biden White House and Tel Aviv who would intervene to keep him in power evaporated Tuesday when USAF A-10s smoked a column of Iranian-led Iraqi militia that was heading toward the front.

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Israel hit known Syrian chemical weapons depots to keep the toys away from all of the kids.

The opposition forces are going to pains to be friendly and non-threatening to Israel.

Tactical Situation

There are two key points here.

First, the city of Homs is critical. If the opposition forces take Homs, which now seems a matter of hours, not days, al-Assad is cut off from his Alawite power base to the west. That area is already under pressure from the east and north, and any regime loyalist forces in that area will probably dig in to defend their homes rather than trying to ride to the rescue in Damascus.

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Second, al-Assad’s problem is no longer facing a unified advance by opposition forces on the Aleppo-Hama-Homs axis. Opposition forces suddenly materialized in the south are now pushing into the southern suburbs of Damascus. 

I think it is safe to say we are seeing the final days of the al-Assad regime in Syria.