The Rise of Hypersonic Weapons Is a Clear Threat to the U.S. Military

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Key Points: The rise of hypersonic weapons—capable of speeds exceeding Mach 5 with extreme maneuverability—marks a seismic shift in warfare.

-ADM James A. Winnefeld Jr. (USN, ret.) emphasizes the urgent need for U.S. forces to prepare through rigorous training.

-Drawing from his experience tracking an SR-71 at Mach 3, he highlights the quantum leap in difficulty posed by hypersonic threats, such as China’s DF-17 and Russia’s operational systems.

-Exercises like RIMPAC and AUKUS collaborations can integrate hypersonic scenarios to hone skills, identify gaps, and strengthen allied defenses.

-The author stresses that investing in personnel readiness is as crucial as advancing technology.

How the U.S. Military Is Preparing for Hypersonic Threats

Over my years of service, I have witnessed firsthand the rapid evolution of warfare technology. But few advancements have concerned me as much as the emergence of hypersonic weapons. These missiles, capable of traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5 with unprecedented maneuverability, represent a paradigm shift in modern warfare.

Fortunately, senior Defense Department leadership and industry are not only addressing our own hypersonic capabilities; they are focused on defending against these threats as well – at least on the technical side. But there is still an important gap we should and can close.

As a former naval aviator, I can attest that the first time one of our servicemembers sees a hypersonic threat inbound should not be in combat. This holds true whether it’s an Air Force F-35 pilot, an Army Air Defender operating a THAAD battery, a sailor sitting at an AEGIS fire control display on a DDG, or a Guardian doing missile warning. This isn’t just a common-sense opinion, however; it’s a vital principle born from personal experience.

As a mid-grade F-14 pilot, I once had the rare opportunity to track and simulate an engagement of an extremely high and fast target off the coast of Southern California that I later learned was most likely an SR-71 Blackbird. The experience was humbling, to say the least. It was an order of magnitude more difficult than anything I had ever done in terms of interception. And that was only at Mach 3 — a fraction of the speed of today’s hypersonic threats. If a Mach 3 aircraft presented such challenges for an experienced pilot, imagine the complexities of dealing with Mach 5+ weapons in actual combat situations. It’s a scenario we simply cannot afford to deploy our servicemembers unprepared to face.

The threat is not hypothetical. According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, in 2020 China fielded the DF-17 medium range-range missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle payload and a range of 1600 kilometers. Russia has three deployed hypersonic weapon systems, two of which have been used on the battlefield in Ukraine. These already operational capabilities are shifting the strategic calculus and potentially undermining our traditional deterrence strategies and missile defense systems. Of particular concern is the vulnerability of key strategic locations like Guam, a vital hub for our Indo-Pacific operations. Its proximity to potential threats and the limitations of our current defenses against hypersonic threats make it an especially tempting target.

Tsirkon Hypersonic Missile. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach, combining technological innovation, strategic planning, and, crucially, extensive training. Fortunately, capabilities that will allow us to simulate this threat exist today. Not only should these capabilities be available to every deploying unit – our major military exercises offer a superb opportunity to test the end-to-end kill chain against hypersonics — it can open them to our vital allies and partners.

RIMPAC, the world’s largest international maritime warfare exercise, offers an unparalleled opportunity to test and refine our capabilities against hypersonic threats in a multinational context. Talisman Sabre, our principal bilateral exercise with Australia, provides a crucial platform for developing interoperability. The Navy’s Grey Flag exercises, designed to push the boundaries of naval aviation, are ideally suited for incorporating the extreme speeds and maneuverability of hypersonic threats into air combat scenarios.

By integrating hypersonic threat training into these exercises, we’ll familiarize our personnel with the unique characteristics of these weapons, identify gaps in our defensive capabilities, and foster a mindset of adaptability and innovation among our forces and those of our allies.

Moreover, initiatives like AUKUS Pillar II present valuable opportunities for collaboration. By working closely with Australia and the United Kingdom, we can pool resources, share expertise, and jointly develop advanced capabilities to counter hypersonic threats. This kind of international cooperation is essential in facing a challenge of this magnitude.

Image: Raytheon media handout.

Throughout my career, I have learned that our greatest asset is not our technology, but the skill, adaptability, and readiness of the men and women who serve. As we continue to invest in cutting-edge defense technologies, we must ensure that our personnel are equally prepared. Regular exposure to hypersonic threat scenarios in exercises and pre-deployment workups is essential for our national security.

The advent of hypersonic weapons demands a corresponding shift in our training and preparedness. By rigorously incorporating these scenarios into our military exercises, we not only enhance our defensive capabilities but also send a clear message to potential adversaries: the United States and its allies are ready to meet the challenges of tomorrow’s battlefield.

My experience with the SR-71 serves as a stark reminder of the challenges we face. The gap between Mach 3 and Mach 5+ is not just a matter of speed — it’s a quantum leap in warfare technology that we must be prepared to confront.

As we enter a new era of warfare, let’s ensure that our forces are trained, ready, and confident in their ability to defend against these emerging threats.