Guam: The U.S. Military’s Achilles Heel in War with China?

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Key Points: Guam is central to U.S. strategy in East Asia but remains vulnerable to China’s extensive missile arsenal, including DF-26 “Guam Killer” ballistic missiles.

-Aegis Ashore, Patriot, and THAAD systems are planned for 2027, but their readiness is slow, and intercepting hundreds of missiles remains a daunting challenge.

-Congressional lawmakers are urging faster deployment and enhanced shelters for personnel.

-Adding naval assets with ship-borne Aegis systems could help but strains resources elsewhere.

-China’s ability to overwhelm Guam’s defenses or use electronic warfare underscores the urgency for robust, integrated missile defenses to protect Guam and maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Can Guam Be Defended from Chinese Missiles?

Guam is the key to U.S. military strategy in East Asia. It is an island that would be disastrous for the Americans if it came under attack and became incapacitated. Without Guam, China would have unfettered access to the Pacific Ocean – an unthinkable dilemma for the Pentagon. China has an enormous arsenal of missiles that could hit Guam to devastating effect. Would the United States be able to defend Guam from such a dangerous attack?

Murdered By ‘Guam Killers’

China even has ballistic missiles that are nicknamed “Guam Killers.” 

The main one to fear is the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile. 

The DF-26 is a dual-threat conventional and nuclear weapon that has U.S. military leaders, strategists, lawmakers, and battle planners up in arms.

The DF-26 ranges 2,000 or more (some sources have this higher, at 3,100 miles or more), and Guam is in its crosshairs. 

The Pentagon believes that China has 250 launchers and at least 500 intermediate-range ballistic missiles that could hit Guam.

U.S. Ground Defenses May Be Insufficient 

They would be difficult to eliminate if China decided to attack the island. 

“The missile also has maneuvering capabilities and won’t necessarily follow a ballistic trajectory, which makes it very difficult to engage if you’re shooting at it from the ground,” J. Michael Dahm of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

But There Are Also Missiles from Ships and Airplanes

Then there are all of the short-range missiles and drones that could be launched from Chinese fighter jets, bombers, and ships that could also overwhelm Guam.

This would be a complex simultaneous attack with different speeds, trajectories, and distances, making their entire elimination next to impossible. 

There Is a Plan for Missile Protection

Fortunately, the U.S. Department of Defense has a plan for defending the potential apocalypse, but it is costly. 

The Pentagon wants to spend $1.5 billion to deploy the land-based anti-missile Aegis Ashore system, plus Patriot air defense batteries and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). 

However, this integrated and layered system will not be ready until 2027, even though the United States will require at least two live fire tests per year for the next ten years.

What About Shelters for the People on Guam?

Congressional lawmakers are not happy with the current Guam missile defense systems, claiming that they are inadequate. Earlier in the spring, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Representative John Moolenaar (R-MI) penned a letter to Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall and Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro. The missive said that enhancements to the missile defense system on Guam need to be made rapidly. The lawmakers also want more bomb shelters for uniform and civilian personnel on the island. 

“We are concerned about the alarming lack of urgency by the Department of Defense in adopting such defensive measures. U.S. bases in the region have almost no hardened aircraft shelters compared to Chinese military bases,” the legislators wrote.

Too Many Chinese Missiles to Eliminate

In addition to the shelter problem, the huge Chinese advantage in missiles makes defending against them exceedingly difficult. The Aegis, Patriot, and THAAD integrated plan will require a massive number of interceptors that must be loaded quickly by crews. 

It may not be enough, and several Chinese munitions could break through the defenses and destroy Andersen Air Force Base and other installations on Guam, including civilian housing. 

Add Ships to Protect Guam

So far, no solution is perfect. One addition that I would make would be to have a flotilla of U.S. Navy ships surround Guam and use ship-borne Aegis systems to take out enemy ballistic missiles. This deployment could help, except for the problem of numbers. American vessels are also needed in other parts of the Indo-Pacific. 

Due to the nature of these open-source reports, China is quite aware of its advantage against Guam. On Day One of a conflict, the United States would not only have to protect Guam but also stymie anti-ship missiles that could sink aircraft carriers.

Speed Up the Deployment of the Missile Shield

The only thing the United States can do for Guam is move quicker to get the entire integrated defense layer functioning. But missile defense is not easy. You are basically trying to hit a bullet with a bullet, and some enemy missiles are bound to slip through the screen.

Even a Test Launch Would Be Ugly 

It is not clear if China would try an attack on Guam on Day One, but they could send a few launches in the vicinity of the island to show the Americans that Beijing is not fooling around. After that, diplomacy would have to take over after a cease-fire could be put in place.

Jamming U.S. Radar Installations

Before Day One, China would likely send the message that it could use electronic warfare and cyber-attacks to incapacitate defenses on Guam. The United States may have to waive the white flag and turn to diplomatic efforts at that point.

As you can see, the situation looks grim. Fortunately, strategists and U.S. military battle planners and Congress members know the problem and are working on solutions.

 The overall problem is that China knows that a quick and decisive victory against Guam could change the security balance in East Asia, and that gives Beijing confidence and satisfaction that it has the upper hand. 

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.