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Key Points: When Donald Trump becomes the 47th U.S. president, his defense budgets will likely emphasize increased spending on advanced weapons systems like the F-35, B-21 bomber, and Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter while cutting overseas military commitments.

-Personnel pay and benefits, totaling $200 billion annually, will remain untouched, but Trump may reduce costs by scaling back military bases abroad and urging allies to contribute more.

–Aid to Ukraine and other nations might also be trimmed, redirecting funds toward procurement and readiness. Trump’s defense strategy could focus on “armed diplomacy,” leveraging military strength while reducing troop deployments to minimize risks and costs.

What Will Donald Trump’s New Defense Budgets Consist Of?

I have focused on diplomacy and negotiations for a recent series on Donald Trump’s re-election. I have created a laundry list of diplomatic actions that could help end wars around the world. 

But diplomacy is nothing without the threat of armed force. 

So, let’s examine what the 47th president’s defense spending policy will be in his quest for peace through strength.

Huge, Unsustainable Debt

Here is the first problem. 

The United States has around $36 trillion in debt that gets bigger every month. Donald Trump is not known as a cost cutter and intends to extend his 2017 tax cuts, which could put more pressure on the U.S. deficits and debt. Trump will never cut entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. 

He cannot change veterans’ benefits. He loves infrastructure spending, so Trump is a budget dove on discretionary and non-discretionary spending.

Would Trump Spend $1 Trillion on Defense?

However, confusingly, he is also a defense hawk who wants to increase some defense spending. However, the United States will soon spend about $1 trillion on defense. 

Can this be sustainable? Only if the Federal Reserve Bank gets its printing press in gear.

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at an “An Address to Young Americans” event hosted by Students for Trump and Turning Point Action at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Arizona.

Trump Likes the Best Toys Money Can Buy

The first area to consider is major end items. 

The U.S. military wants to have the best toys in the world.

I’m talking F-35 fighters, B-21 bombers, the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, and the Ford-class aircraft carrier. All of these become huge expenditures. 

These procurement costs for all weapons systems ran upwards of $146 billion in 2023. Trump’s White House will likely increase that number to $200 billion for more B-21s, development of the NGAD, and keeping all the submarines, ships, and carriers in the water.

Don’t Cut Pay and Benefits

We spend about $184 billion a year in personnel costs. There is no way Donald Trump will take out the red pen in this area. Cutting uniformed personnel’s pay or benefits is out of the question. And this compensation must grow with inflation. So, you might as well round it up to $200 billion.

Bring Our Guys and Gals Home, Donald Trump

Here’s a place that Trump could cut: overseas military installations. 

You could add military exercises to this amount. Trump is always looking for ways to bring troops home and cut down on defense drills to save money. I have written about canceling exercises and removing American troops from South Korean bases in a previous article. Let’s say Trump can get this down to $40 billion instead of $55 billion.

Make the Allies Pay Their Fair Share

Don’t forget our allies.

Spending for funding the war in Ukraine and assistance to Israel plus all other military aid is around $100 billion. Trump could likely cut that down to $75 billion.

You may be seeing a pattern. Trump could cut the defense budget if he wanted to, which would certainly make headlines. He could spend more on major end items but close some bases overseas, bring troops home, and cancel military drills.

The money saved could go toward military compensation and defense procurement.

Taking a New Look at Defense Spending

Most presidents and Members of Congress who serve on the House or Senate Armed Services Committees want defense spending to at least keep up with inflation. Trump’s budget would do this, but he could make some creative changes to how most DC foreign policy blob members look at defense spending. 

Let’s Get Creative With Defense Cuts

I would advise Trump to spend more on defense systems and personnel but cut defense aid to European allies and reduce the number of military exercises, particularly in South Korea, to improve relations with North Korea. 

If Trump does not start any new wars and limits the amount of money going out the door to Ukraine until a peace process can take hold between Kyiv and Moscow, he could plow savings back into new major end items. 

This would strengthen military capabilities, allow the United States to keep up with peer competitors, and create a higher level of military readiness for better-armed diplomacy.

Make the Europeans Pay More

One question that Donald Trump will ask is, “Why do we have 100,000 U.S. soldiers in Europe?” 

The answer is to deter and defend against Russia. But what if Trump can forge peace between Moscow and Kyiv and maintain the balance of forces between the two countries in an armistice agreement? 

If that is the case, the president may say to bring some Americans home from Europe.

This is the kind of commander-in-chief that Trump is. He wants to increase strength through weapons systems but reduce the troop footprint overseas. The United States may spend more on significant-end items but less on overseas contingency operations.

Trump wants a strong military so he doesn’t have to use it. Look for him and his new Secretary of Defense to instill a mantra of armed diplomacy but with fewer troops in harm’s way. 

This could become a new rallying cry for Trump’s next defense strategy, and we could get more bang for the buck.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.