3 NBA ‘Locks’ For Thursday: Nuggets-Cavaliers, Suns-Pelicans, Kings-Grizzlies

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Between Thursday Night Football and the NBA, I’ll be gambling my a** off tonight. Granted, these are just appetizers for the loaded sports weekend, which includes UFC 310, the college football conference championships, and a great NFL Week 14 slate. My goal Thursday is to build a surplus in my sports betting account that I can use to invest in football this weekend. 

Will it work? Probably not. The NBA has been the bane of my existence. That said, I did go 2-1 Tuesday in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup, so maybe it’s comeback season for your boy. Nevertheless, keep reading to see how I’m betting the Association on Thursday. 

NBA Best Bets for December 5

• Denver Nuggets +4.5 (-110) at Cleveland Cavaliers via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Nuggets moneyline (+150) at Cavs, risking 0.5u.
• New Orleans Pelicans moneyline (+130) vs. Phoenix Suns via DraftKings, risking 1u.
• Memphis Grizzlies -3 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.

Nuggets (+4.5) at Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET

This is a sell-high spot for Cleveland (19-3), a -4.5 favorite over a full-strength Nuggets (11-8) team. The Cavs are second in net rating and have the best record in the Association, but they are still not in Denver’s tier now that PF Aaron Gordon is back. He is “probable” for Thursday and has played two games after missing most of November with a calf strain. 

Gordon’s return gives the Nuggets the best starting 5 in the NBA. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Denver’s starting lineup on opening night — Gordon, C Nikola Jokić, PG Jamal Murray, SG Christian Braun, and SF Michael Porter Jr. — are +19.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. This ranks in the 83% of all five-man lineups. 

Furthermore, I’m counting on a monster game from Jokić because he is facing one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA: Cleveland C Jarrett Allen and PF Evan Mobley. Jokić has messed around and got a triple-double in four of his last six games vs. Allen and the Nuggets have won three of those games. 

Lastly, according to the Yahoo! Sports app and Pregame.com, most of the public are betting Cleveland. Being about to fade the public with the healthy Nuggets, who were +950 to win the NBA title preseason against the Cavs, who had +6000 to win the championship preseason, is too enticing to pass up. 

Prediction: Denver 118, Cleveland 116 

• Again, I’m betting the Nuggets +4.5 (-110) to win a 1u and risking a 0.5u on Denver’s moneyline (+150).

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Suns at Pelicans (+130), 8 p.m. ET

Phoenix (12-8) All-Star Kevin Durant missed seven games from November 10-20. The Suns have won and covered three of their last four games since Durant’s return Nov. 26. Well, KD will be sidelined for at least a week with an ankle injury. Phoenix is 11-2 in games Durant plays and 1-6 in games he misses. 

New Orleans (4-18), on the other hand, should be getting back wing Herbert Jones, who has been out since Oct. 30 with a shoulder injury. Jones can space the floor with his 3-point shooting and defends the opponent’s best ball handler. He shot a career-best 41.8% from behind the arc last season and finished fifth in 2023-24 NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting. 

The Suns were 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Pelicans last season. KD, Suns SG Bradley Beal, and All-Star combo guard Devin Booker played in all three of those meetings, which is rare for them. Booker averaged 43.0 points on 75.9% true shooting (.622/.424/.920) with two 52-point games against NOLA last season. 

However, the Pelicans added another elite on-ball perimeter defender to throw at Booker this offseason in combo guard Dejounte Murray. Since neither Suns C Jusuf Nurkic nor Durant will play Thursday, New Orleans can focus on Booker more. Between Jones, who is “questionable”, and Murray, I like NOLA’s defense in this game. 

Prediction: New Orleans 114, Phoenix 109

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Kings at Grizzlies (-3), 8 p.m. ET

Memphis (14-8) had its six-game winning streak snapped Tuesday in a 121-116 road loss to the Dallas Mavericks. The Grizzlies held a 15-point lead in the second half but collapsed with Dallas out-scoring Memphis 39-21 in the fourth quarter. Yet, the Mavs are a bad matchup for the Grizzlies, and I like betting teams to bounce back after their winning streak is broken. 

Conversely, Sacramento’s 120-111 win over a quality Houston Rockets team Tuesday in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup masks how poorly the 10-12 Kings are playing. They are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS over the last 10 games. With that in mind, I like fading teams playing badly after they get a big win vs. a tough opponent. 

Also, the Grizzlies are a different team at home, especially with Ja Morant on the floor. Memphis is 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS with a +5.8 spread differential at home. Ja only played nine games last season because of injuries and brandishing guns on IG. But, from 2021-23, the Grizzlies were 65-17 SU and 50-31-1 ATS in the regular season at home with a +9.9 scoring margin. 

Finally, Sactown is terrible at defending 3-pointers, the most important thing in basketball nowadays. The Kings are 29th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage and 28th in 3-point attempts allowed per game. Defensive 3-point shooting rates can be misleading because preventing 3-point attempts is more important in the first place. Well, the Kings suck at both. 

Prediction: Memphis 125, Sacramento 116

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.