Russia’s Su-57 Felon Stealth Fighter Dilemma

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Key Points: The destruction of a rare Russian Su-57 Felon by a Ukrainian drone strike this summer underscores the growing challenges facing Russia’s air force.

-The Felon, touted as a fifth-generation stealth fighter comparable to the F-22, is a cornerstone of Russia’s aerial capabilities, yet production delays and operational setbacks have limited its impact.

-The attack at an airbase 372 miles from the frontlines highlights vulnerabilities in Russia’s counter-drone defenses.

-As Ukraine prepares to field F-16s in greater numbers, the Su-57’s effectiveness will be tested further.

-Unless Russia can improve production and utilization of the Felon, its role in the conflict may remain marginal.

Ukraine Takes Out Russia’s Su-57: What It Means for the Air War

It hasn’t been a good year for the Russian Air Force, and now the Ukrainians are adding insult to injury.

One of Russia’s most vaunted warbirds – the Sukhoi Su-57 Felon – was destroyed by a Ukrainian drone strike in June.

The resilient and intrepid Ukrainians have raised the stakes in the war against Russia by using drones in deep attack mode.

The destruction of the single-seat twin-engine Su-57 Felon must have created another headache for air force leaders in Moscow because it is one of the jewels in the Russian crown.

The drone attack happened at an airbase in the remote Astrakhan region on June 8, which should have been protected better by counter-drone defenses. It was 372 miles from the fighting in the Donetsk area of operations in Ukraine.

This must have made the Ukrainians happy as the Felon was supposed to be making an impressive impact in the air war against Ukraine. Eliminating this rare and advanced fighter must be especially frustrating to the Russians.

And that means even more trouble for the troubles Su-57 Felon. 

Su-57: This Fighter Is a Mystery

The Su-57 Felon has been enigmatic for Western intelligence agencies. It assuredly has stealth attributes. The Felon is expected to be a flying computer – like the F-35.

Perhaps it does have artificial intelligence capabilities in the cockpit. The fighter is supposed to make Mach 2 with a range of 2,200 miles.

One could compare this speed and range to an F-22, although the Raptor is likely faster and can fly further without aerial refueling.

Can We Believe the Hype?

Intelligence analysts also believe the Felon has AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar and phased array radar, which would make its defenses up to par with other fifth-generation fighters.

The targeting specs also allow the Felon to sniff out enemy fighters and blast away before adversaries can react.

The Felon also may have “loyal wingman” capabilities – meaning it could be tethered to a drone bomber and have a force multiplier effect in this teaming arrangement.

Russia has endured difficulty producing the Felons in numbers that would allow them to make an impact over Ukraine. There are likely fewer than 15 available for flight (numbers vary on the source), and now one fewer makes the numbers unimpressive.

Can the Su-57 Felon Overwhelm the F-16?

What is most interesting is how the Felon would compare to the F-16 fighters that Ukraine is expected to fly in greater numbers as time goes on. 

If the Felon is as good as advertised, it may outclass the F-16, but Ukraine’s air force could change its tactics to get the most out of the Vipers (also called the Fighting Falcon). To accomplish this, Ukraine must switch tactical doctrine, and that may be difficult for Ukrainian pilots.

“The bottom line is that it will not be easy,” retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General David Deptula, told Business Insider. “It will take years for the Ukrainian military culture to shift from the model based on their Soviet military history, to Western military doctrine.”

Expect More Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Airplanes

Meanwhile, the Su-57 Felon could continue to get blown up on the ground by the pesky Ukrainian drones.

This could keep the advanced Russian fighter out of aerial battle entirely.

If the Ukrainian pilots respond well to flying the F-16, they could create more success against Russia despite the advantages the Felon is supposed to have.

Ukrainian Aerial Victory Over the Su-57 Would Be a PR Bonanza

Ukrainian pilots would love to shoot down a Felon for the social media and public relations effect. The Russian air force is likely aware of the risks, and that may keep the Su-57 from flying over Ukraine in the first place. Russia may decide to keep the Su-57 Felon in stand-off attack mode and only fly it over Russia and resist a dogfight with the F-16, especially if the Viper shows success against other Russian fighters.

So far, the Su-57 has been a disappointment. A drone attack has clipped the Russian air force again. The Su-57 could be overrated, and Russia may keep it grounded unless it produces more success in a timely manner.

Ukrainian pilots may shake off their prior Soviet-era training and master the Western ways of aerial combat, with the F-16 achieving more victories over their counterparts. The Felon needs to rise to the occasion if it is to ever be a factor in the war.

About the Author

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.