B-21 Raider Bomber Has Way More Problems Than Russia or China

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Key Points: The B-21 Raider, a next-generation stealth bomber, is exceeding expectations as a rare Department of Defense program hitting milestones.

-Designed to replace aging B-1B and B-2 bombers, the Raider boasts advanced stealth for penetrating air defenses and fulfilling strategic nuclear and conventional roles.

-With a manageable per-unit cost of $692 million, the Raider avoids past cost spirals by leveraging proven technologies.

-Its adaptability for reconnaissance and battle management adds modern value. However, long-term success depends on continued problem-free development and integration.

-Despite questions about the role of manned bombers in modern warfare, the B-21 remains critical for U.S. long-range strike capabilities.

B-21 Raider: The Pentagon’s Bright Spot in Defense Programs

At this moment, nearly every major Department of Defense program seems to be struggling. Technological bottlenecks, industrial capacity problems, workforce issues, and general bureaucratic confusion have produced delivery delays and cost overruns, even as the entire defense industrial base faces the challenge of competing with Russia and China.

The B-21 Raider Bomber, Explained

The major exception to these problems appears, surprisingly enough, to be the B-21 Raider. The purpose of the B-21 program was to produce a new generation of strategic bombers to replace the B-1B Lancer and the B-2 Spirit. The subsonic B-21 is designed to use stealth to penetrate enemy air defenses and deliver conventional or nuclear payloads. The Raider was needed because of the age and technological obsolescence of the B-1B fleet (designed and built in a different technological reality) and the cost and small size of the B-2 fleet.

Strategic bombers programs have historically suffered from severe procurement issues, as they attempt to unite a raft of capabilities into an advanced technology platform that is intended to serve for decades. In World War II, the B-29 Superfortress was a huge headache, and every ensuing bomber program has suffered from significant problems. But the B-21 seems to have avoided these problems.  How has it done so, and how is the program faring overall?

Cost for the B-21: The Biggest Question Mark? 

The biggest threat to the survival of the B-21 was identified early on as a cost spiral.

The “death spiral” of cost overruns and Congressional oversight effectively killed the growth of the B-2 fleet at the end of the Cold War, leaving the Air Force with only a handful of units. This, in turn, drives up operating costs and reduces the resiliency of the fleet to combat losses and maintenance problems. Avoiding this problem was central to the B-21 project, meaning a minimum of new technologies developed specifically for the platform, and a maximum of lessons learned from previous projects.

In this effort the project is largely succeeding, at least so far. The cost profile for the B-21 has remained manageable, largely because Northrop Grumman pursued the project with cost projections in mind. The Raider’s cost has grown marginally to an average per unit cost of $692 million, mainly in lines with expectations from last decade.

The Raider’s first flight took place on November 10, 2023, and the program has begun low-rate initial production, with initial units expected to serve eventually in front-line roles.

Where We Are?

The other big question involves how the B-21 fits into the vision of warfare that has emerged in Ukraine over the past two years.

For much of the conflict, manned aviation has been sidelined relative to the use of unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery. On both sides of the front line, the density of air defense networks has made it nearly suicidal for aircraft to operate in close proximity to the lines.

Moreover, neither Russia nor Ukraine have conducted long-range penetration strikes with manned aircraft, preferring instead to launch missiles and other ordnance from stand-off ranges. The B-21 can certainly conduct such missions, and probably more effectively than the hodgepodge of aging bombers that the Russians have used during the war.

Moreover, the B-21 has sufficiently long range to operate from bases that are relatively safe from drone strikes. Still, delivering long-range missiles does not really test the capabilities of the B-21, or justify the expense of a new strategic bomber program.

The Era of the Long-Range Bomber Over?

But it’s too early to write off the long-range strike bomber as obsolete. For one, while the B-21 is capable of delivering strikes in support of conventional military operations along a contested front line, this is not its central purpose. The Raider has the capacity to carry out strikes deep in contested airspace, including against targets that are part of the nuclear enterprise.

This has long been part of the purpose of the USAF’s strategic bomber fleet, and if the US Air Force is to maintain a long-range strike capability, it needs stealth and more than twenty aircraft. For another, the Raider is intended to have unprecedented capabilities as a “battle manager,” a platform for helping to manage the difficult reconnaissance and communications landscape of the modern battlefield.

This role emerged during the Wars on Terror, as legacy bombers (such as the B-1B and the B-52) fulfilled new communications and data management roles.

Thus, the presence of a large, stealthy aircraft like the Raider should improve capabilities across the system of systems that constitute the modern reconnaissance-strike complex.   

What Happens to the B-21 Raider In the Long Term?

Almost unheard of for a contemporary procurement program, the B-21 Raider seems to be hitting most of its milestones. But we should take care; the Constellation-class frigates appeared to be on track until a recent GAO report made public a series of problems with the program that threaten its overall health.

Watching a Department of Defense project can often feel like an exercise in waiting for the other shoe to drop; a technological problem or a workforce problem or a software problem can derail the entire project, pushing back service dates, driving costs up, and making everyone wonder whether the game was worth the candle.

Thus far, the B-21 Raider program has been served well by its humility, but much work remains to be done before it can take pride of place in the strategic bomber fleet.

About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, 1945, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.