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After doing load management for Thanksgiving, the Association returns on Black Friday with 10 group-play games in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup. Even though I enjoy complaining about the NBA’s crappy product, I understand taking Turkey Day off since it’s an NFL holiday. That said, I’m re-heating Thanksgiving leftovers, watching and responsibly betting the Association with the money saved from Black Friday deals.

NBA Best Bets for Black Friday, November 29 

  • Minnesota Timberwolves -6 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Clippers via DraftKings, risking 1.08 units (u).
  • Detroit Pistons +5.5 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
  • Los Angeles Lakers +3 (-110) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.

Clippers at Timberwolves (-6), 7:30 p.m. ET

Minnesota (8-10) has lost seven of its past 10 games, both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), including a four-game losing skid entering Black Friday. Frustration about their recent struggles caused Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards to call his team out after Wednesday’s 115-104 loss to the Kings at home as -3.5 favorites. 

In contrast, the Clippers (12-8) have won six of their last seven games (6-1 ATS) with upset victories over the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings. The Clippers’ only loss over that span was to the Celtics 126-94 in Boston Monday. Granted, a 32-point loss is a no-show. But, that was LAC’s third game in four nights, and the Celtics are the reigning NBA champions. 

Regardless, the Timberwolves were 3-1 SU and ATS last season vs. a much more talented Clippers team. Former Los Angeles All-Star Paul George and All-Star Kawhi Leonard both played in all four games, which is rare for them. And neither are playing in Clippers-Timberwolves Friday in the NBA Cup. 

Lastly, I have a hunch Edwards leads by example Friday and Minnesota responds to its leader, especially at home. The T-Wolves have a +4.3 scoring margin at home. Their effective field goal rate (eFG%), which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting, improves by 29 percentage points in home games (56.8-53.9%). 

Prediction: Minnesota 115, Los Angeles 103 

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Pistons (+5.5) at Pacers, 8 p.m. ET

Pistons-Pacers Part I October 23 was the first of my many tough beats in the NBA this season. I got hooked because, as +5.5 home underdogs, Detroit (8-12) lost to Indiana 115-109. The Pistons were ahead entering the fourth quarter where they were out-scored 33-19. Plus, Detroit outperformed Indiana (9-10) in three of the “four factors”, led for 34:20 minutes, and held the game’s biggest lead at 12 points. 

Pistons PG Cade Cunningham scored a game-high 28 points, and he has been upgraded to questionable for Friday after missing the past three games with a hip injury. Cunningham was close to returning for Detroit’s 131-111 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies and participated in shootaround. He went through shootaround Friday in Indiana, so I expect Cunningham will return Friday. 

Nevertheless, I’m fading the Pacers because their offense hasn’t been as good as last season and their defense has been as bad. This season, Indiana is 11th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. The Pacers were second in offensive rating and 24th defensively last season. 

Prediction: Detroit 116, Indiana 113

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Thunder at Lakers (+3), 10 p.m. ET

The Lakers (11-7) are 5-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), including a three-game winning streak, in their last six meetings with the Thunder (14-4). Los Angeles All-Star big Anthony Davis dominated Oklahoma City in 2023-24 and is playing better this season. 

AD averaged 27.0 points per game (PPG) and 13.0 rebounds with a +20 net rating in four games vs. OKC. Davis is scoring a career-best 29.2 PPG on a career-high 57.5% eFG%. He can focus more on scoring because the Thunder are missing C Chet Holmgren, one of the best young skilled bigs in the NBA. 

Los Angeles Lakers wing Dalton Knecht shoots a 3-pointer over the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center. (Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images)

Los Angeles Lakers wing Dalton Knecht shoots a 3-pointer over the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center. (Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images)

Lakers head coach JJ Redick inserted sharp-shooting rookie forward Dalton Knecht into the starting 5 Wednesday in LAL’s 119-101 road win over the San Antonio Spurs. In six games as a starter, Knecht is scoring 19.7 PPG (7.8 PPG as a backup) on 55.0% shooting (45.8% as a backup) with a 138 offensive rating (113 offensive rating as a backup). 

Knecht makes the Lakers a lethal 3-point shooting team. He shoots 43.6% from behind the arc. LAL’s eFG% improves by 6.2% when Knecht is on the floor, which ranks in the 93rd percentile of NBA wings, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Between their sneaky-good 3-point shooting and recent dominance over the Thunder, the wrong team is favored in this game. 

Prediction: Los Angeles 118, Oklahoma City 114

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.