F-16s, ATACMS and Abrams Tanks: Why They’re Not Enough for Ukraine

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Key Points: Ukraine’s repeated requests for advanced Western weapons have failed to deliver decisive victories in its war against Russia, raising questions about the effectiveness of this strategy. Despite receiving advanced systems like F-16s, Abrams tanks, and ATACMS missiles, the conflict remains a costly stalemate.

-Critics suggest that a comprehensive review of U.S. arms aid is overdue. The incoming Trump administration may impose stricter accountability measures, halt certain weapon supplies, and prioritize efficiency over open-ended commitments.

-This reevaluation aims to ensure weapons are used effectively and prevent waste, fraud, or a reliance on unrealistic expectations for a “silver bullet” to end the war.

Is Ukraine’s Strategy Failing? A Hard Look at U.S. Arms Aid

The repetitious pattern is easy to spot. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky says victory is approaching if he has a new weapons system. He receives it and sends it to combat. Nothing changes on the battlefield. He then asks for another major end item that costs considerable dollars and is challenging to maintain. This is sent to Ukraine and there is no conclusive victory. Then, the cycle repeats itself. We have seen it with tanks, airplanes, and long-range missile systems. The Ukrainians, Americans, and Europeans constantly look for the silver bullet that will end the war, and it proves ephemeral.

This whole weapons saga is like the search for the Holy Grail. According to legend, King Arthur’s knights came close to finding the grail, which was snatched from them. Then, they continued to look for the magic chalice with no luck. When will this end? 

ATACMS Is Supposed to Win the War

The latest weapons system, ATACMS, can now be fired deep into Russia. President Joe Biden ordered the go-ahead. But it doesn’t look like these long-range missiles will end the war. The Biden administration even admitted so. 

The Best Weapons in the Department of Defense Have Been Sent to Ukraine

F-16 fighter jets were supposed to create air superiority for the Ukrainians. But one has been lost in combat and the pilots are being trained slowly. The F-16 has not made a difference to decisively end the conflict. The same can be said for American goodies like the Abrams tank, the Paladin self-propelled howitzer, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and the Stryker armored personnel carrier. These are the best weapons systems in the U.S. Army. They have proliferated all over the battlefield in Ukraine. Still no victory.

You can’t blame Zelensky for trying to win the war with the best weapons systems possible. We all understand that. But this is becoming tiresome as the war enters its third year. When will this be over?

Perhaps a New Administration Can Stop the Madness

Look toward the new Donald Trump administration for clues. Trump may turn off the weapons spigot to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table. Expect the new defense team to review the entire Ukrainian armaments strategy. First, let’s find out if there is waste, fraud, and abuse to ensure the weapons and ammunition arrive intact at the front. Second, how are these weapons being used – what types of battles, etc.? Third, how successful have they been?

If these questions are not answered satisfactorily, then stop their supply. Ukraine will hate this, but the current situation is unacceptable. Someone in authority must tell Zelensky that there will not be a blank check.

Detailed Review and Accountancy Is Needed

It is up to National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth to put up a stop sign and order a detailed review of all the weapons that Ukraine has received from the United States.

Some have been undeniably successful like Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger air defense systems. Others, like the M1 Abrams, have received mixed reviews while deployed to Iraq. Long-range missile systems such as HIMARS and ATACMS are popular with the Ukrainians, but they have yet to be decisive. The F-16s have arrived slowly and need to be fighting in real aerial combat scenarios.

Switchblade Drone Attack by Ukraine

The Cupboard Is Almost Empty

Meanwhile, some Republican lawmakers and nearly all Democrats on Capitol Hill are in favor of an open-ended supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. However, the United States is running out of certain types of munitions, namely surface-to-surface missiles and surface-to-air missiles. The Department of Defense could not prosecute a three-front war should China ever attack Taiwan.

Stopping the export of all weapons to Ukraine without some type of review and accounting process is necessary for the new administration. I would place a moratorium on Abrams tanks and F-16s until I knew these major end items were successful.

Someone needs to explain to Zelensky that there cannot be an open-ended commitment to send all of these weapons to Ukraine without reckoning and accounting. There is no silver bullet in a war that is in a stalemate. The current Ukrainian strategy is not working; some could say there is no real strategy for ultimate victory. We are sending weapons without accountability, and that is a fool’s errand. Pause all exports until we know more about the efficacy of these arms systems, detail the problems, and ensure the report is released to the public. This is the only way to ensure the war is winnable with the weapons provided.

NASAMS like used in Ukraine. Image Credit: Raytheon.

About the Author

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.