NFL Week 11 Betting Picks From Analyst Who Is 18-7 Over Past Five Weeks

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Apologies for the picks coming out a little later this week, but I’ve been in Denver covering the Mountain West lawsuit emergency hearing. 

It’s been a busy few days, but I know how many of you hang on my every NFL pick, so I had to make sure I got a fresh slate up for Week 12, even if I had to make my picks from an airplane (which I did). 

After another good week, I’ve gone 18-7 (72%) since Week 7. Let’s see if we can keep the good times rolling… 

Week 11 NFL Betting Picks (3-2)

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48.5 ✅

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins OVER 44 ✅ 

Cleveland Browns (+1) over New Orleans Saints ❌

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over Seattle Seahawks ❌

Buffalo Bills (-2) over Kansas City Chiefs ✅ 

Shame on me for going back to the 49ers well, as they burned me for the second straight week. I’m still a believer, though. As for the Browns… woof. Pun intended. 

The Steelers-Ravens game went exactly as we predicted; a low-scoring dogfight between two AFC North rivals, and the Miami Dolphins offense scorched the porous Raiders defense, also as we thought it would. 

Bills-Chiefs came down to the wire, but Josh Allen outplayed Patrick Mahomes and his incredible late touchdown run got us the cover. 

SEASON REPORT CARD (28-22, 56%)

SPREAD BETS (19-15, 56%) 

OVER/UNDER BETS (9-7, 56%) 

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

Week 12 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Friday afternoon.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders UNDER 45.5

While the Commanders’ offense had an explosive stretch from Weeks 3-7, it’s been a bit of a struggle at times since. Plus, there shouldn’t be much need for them to open it up much against the Cowboys. 

The spread is 10.5 for a reason, so the Commanders should be able to get a lead and lean on the run to keep the clock moving. The Cowboys can’t score at all, having posted a combined 16 points over the past two weeks. 

There isn’t much reason to think Dallas is going to break out in this one, especially since the Cowboys’ season is virtually over. It’s time for some of the guys on that team to start making some “business decisions.” 

There’s not much more analysis here other than this total is easily 3-4 points higher than it should be. Take the UNDER. 

Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) over Detroit Lions

While everyone is off crowning the Detroit Lions as Super Bowl favorites, now is the time to fade. The Colts have a terrible public perception thanks to their disastrous quarterback situation. 

But Anthony Richardson has shown he’s capable of taking over a game, and I think he’s got a chance to do it against the Lions on Sunday. This is a perfect letdown spot for Detroit, who has their Thanksgiving Day game against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears on Thursday. 

Indianapolis is getting a full touchdown (plus the hook) at home and that’s enough for me to take them in this spot. Plus, the Colts have been better at home than on the road, going 3-2 at Lucas Oil and 2-4 on the road. 

This is a much bigger game for Indy than Detroit, as the Colts try to stay in the playoff race. They have a favorable schedule down the stretch, so I expect them to pull out all the stops on Sunday. 

Arizona Cardinals (ML -105) over Seattle Seahawks 

I don’t think the Arizona Cardinals are getting the respect that they deserve. This is a legitimately good team and Jonathan Gannon has quickly changed the culture in Arizona. 

Add that to the fact that the Seahawks just aren’t that good. Yes, they just upset the 49ers, but that makes them ripe for a letdown. Every team that the Cardinals have lost to this season is better than them (Bills, Lions, Commanders and Packers), but they’ve beaten every team that they’re better than. 

The facts are clear: the Arizona Cardinals are better than the Seattle Seahawks. So, I’m backing them to win outright in Week 12. 

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48.5

Normally, it’s good practice to bet on the UNDER in primetime games, but I love the OVER in this spot. I’ve got this as the highest-scoring game on the slate. 

The Rams’ offense is healthy with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both providing elite options for quarterback Matthew Stafford. They haven’t quite clicked this season, but they also haven’t all been on the field together that much. 

On the other side, the Eagles don’t have much trouble scoring points. They’ve scored 26+ in each of their past five games and the Rams allowed 20+ points in each of the past four games. 

This has all the hallmarks of a shootout between teams that like to play fast, so I’m taking the OVER.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 51

As mentioned, primetime UNDERS are usually a smart play. While we’re going to go against that on Sunday Night Football, the UNDER is the appropriate play on Monday Night Football. 

Both the Ravens and the Chargers pride themselves on defense and running the football. While the Chargers’ offense has opened up a bit in games where it was necessary, I don’t think that’s going to be a huge issue here. 

The Chargers offensive coordinator is Greg Roman, who was the Ravens OC from 2019-2022, so he knows what Lamar Jackson brings to the table. I expect him to be involved in the defensive game planning and the Chargers will have a strategy to keep Jackson contained. 

And, obviously, we’ve got the Harbaugh Bowl. If there are two coaches who know each other’s style, it’s these two. Plus, both are relatively conservative coaches who might be a little less willing to take risks against one another. 

Add it all up, and this total is way too high. It should be around 45 or 46, and it’s over 50. I see Sunday Night Football as the primetime shootout and Monday Night Football as a slugfest between two AFC contenders.