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Biden authorized Ukraine to use US ATACMs to attack deep inside Russian territory, and Ukraine promptly did so, firing six of the missiles at a Russian ammunition depot deep in Russian territory. 

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On the one hand, you could argue that Ukraine will never be able to win the war without cutting Russian supply lines; on the other hand, WTF, man? Russia has nukes and has made clear that such a move would violate a red line. 

Putin recently changed the Russian nuclear doctrine to reserve the right to respond with nuclear weapons if it is attacked by a client of a nuclear-armed adversary, which clearly includes Ukraine. 

No doubt Putin would not attack the United States directly at this juncture, and I doubt he will drop a nuke on Ukraine for a failed attack on an ammunition depot. 

Moscow signaled to the West that it’s ready for a nuclear confrontation after Ukraine was given permission to attack Russian territory — and appeared to quickly act on that greenlight — using U.S.-made long-range missiles.

Kyiv appeared to waste little time after reportedly being given the go-ahead by Washington Sunday to use U.S.-made ATACMS missiles against specific targets. Ukrainian news outlets reported early Tuesday that the missiles had been used to attack a Russian military facility in the Bryansk border region.

Russia then confirmed the attack, with the Ministry of Defense stating that Ukrainian forces had “struck a facility in [the] Bryansk region” using six ballistic, American-made ATACMS missiles. The ministry claimed air defense missile systems had shot down five of the missiles, and damaged another.

“Its fragments fell on the technical territory of a military facility in the Bryansk region, causing a fire that was quickly extinguished. There were no casualties or damage,” the ministry said.

CNBC was unable to independently verify the reports and Ukraine’s leadership has not yet commented on the attack. The Kyiv Post news outlet cited a national security official as confirming the strike in Bryansk had been carried out, although he did not indicate which weapons had been used.

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Biden has made clear that in the final weeks in office, he will do everything he can to escalate the war, leaving Donald Trump with about as big a mess to deal with as he possibly could. 

Perhaps there is some 4D chess going on, giving Trump extra room to negotiate with Putin and even an olive branch to hand Putin once he enters office, but that seems unlikely. The administration has made clear that it wants to pour as much money and power into Ukraine before Trump enters office. 

Biden has spent the past two years pursuing what in his mind was responsible escalation, resisting pressure to cross Russian red lines. This has had the effect of creating a “forever war,” in which Ukraine could neither win nor lose because it had just enough weapons to stay on the battlefield but not enough to drive Russia out of its territory. 

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The thing is, Russia will never be driven out of Ukrainian territory should Putin decide to stay. Ukraine doesn’t have the population to sustain a prolonged war, while Russia can and has called on its allies to refresh its troop strength. The only thing that could drive Russia out of Ukraine is a collapse of the current regime, and that could be even more dangerous than the current situation. 

Putin is not a nice man, to put it mildly. His invasion of Ukraine–particularly the aborted march to Kyiv–was unjustified. But that isn’t the point. Ukraine was never under our security umbrella, proving that it could defend itself adequately enough to prevent Putin from attacking an actual NATO country. 

It seems clear to me that this is driven by the fear of the transnational elite that Trump will follow through on his promise to wind down wars, focus on our core security interests, and restore a balance of power everybody can live with. 

Americans are tired of wars, and while it is in our interests to maintain basic stability in the world–look at how the Houthis have harmed world trade by closing the Red Sea–nobody here wants to send our troops off to war in Ukraine to preserve a corrupt regime and empower elites who hate us. 

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Risking World War III to get Trump is hardly a “peaceful transfer of power.” But it certainly is on-brand for Biden.