Clay Travis’ Starting 11: Alabama’s Big Win, Colorado’s Climb, SEC Up For Grabs

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It’s November 10th and there are three weeks left in the college football regular season. 

And we’ve got 20 power conference teams and a slew of non-power conference teams still alive for the playoff. 

For the rest of the month, I’ll be opening up the Starting 11 by giving you a playoff overview, because that’s all I hear college football fans talking about. If you thought expanding the playoff would end the arguments, you were wrong. Fans are debating playoff teams, seeding, and upcoming schedules like never before.  

We’ve got six SEC teams alive for the playoff, six in the BIg 12, really, four in the Big Ten and three in the ACC. 

How does it all shake out, and where do we go from here?

I’ll break it all down for you, but first we have to begin the Starting 11 with Alabama feeding LSU to the Tigers. 

1. Alabama completely dominated LSU on Saturday night down on the bayou. 

Honestly, if I’m an LSU fan waking up this morning — probably nursing a colossal hangover because no one can drink like LSU fans — I’m furious with Brian Kelly and the way my team lost. 

It’s one thing to lose, it’s another thing to lose and allow your opponent to destroy you doing the thing they do best, in this case, run Jalen Milroe. 

Milroe ran for 185 yards on just 12 carries. 

185 yards!

He only completed 12 passes for 109 yards.

This is complete coaching malpractice from Brian Kelly and his staff. The game plan for Alabama hasn’t been complicated this year, make Milroe beat you with his arm. This is what everyone has done since the second half of the Georgia game after the Bulldogs were gashed by Milroe in the first half. 

Is that hard to do? 

Sure, Milroe’s an incredibly talented playmaker. But look at what the other four SEC opponents have done against Milroe since he went off running the football in the first half of the Georgia game. Vanderbilt held Milroe to 7 carries for 10 yards, South Carolina held Milroe to 18 carries for 36 yards, Tennessee held Milroe to 14 carries for 11 yards, and Mizzou held Milroe to 11 carries for 50 yards. 

So the previous four SEC opponents limited Milroe to an average of 25 yards rushing a game. 

And then LSU comes out and gives up 185 at home after two weeks to get ready for him?!

That’s just flat out inexcusable. 

Are you telling me LSU, which has recruited like gangbusters, doesn’t have the defensive talent that Vandy, South Carolina, Tennessee and Missouri have?

I just don’t buy it. 

This is coaching, failed coaching. Everyone knows the number one thing you have to do to beat Alabama is stop Milroe from running. And with two weeks to prepare LSU couldn’t do it, even with a night game at Tiger Stadium to help you. 

LSU fans see this. That’s why Brian Kelly is on a major hot seat. This defensive performance is just completely inexcusable. 

2. As for Alabama, props to Kalen DeBoer, this is the biggest win in his coaching career by far. 

Yes, the Georgia win was nice, but this road win is much bigger. 

Especially coming off losses at Vanderbilt and at Tennessee. 

I thought LSU would circle the wagons and find a way to win this game, I was wrong. The Tide can now look at the final three games: Mercer, at Oklahoma and Auburn and feel like 10-2 should be their final record. I’ll dive in to the complicated SEC playoff picture below, but suffice it to say the Tide are going to be one of the final SEC teams in the playoff mix.

LSU had a chance to send the Tide into a true tailspin on a Baton Rouge Saturday night. Instead, DeBoer’s Bama team showed up and physically dominated the Tigers, meaning DeBoer won the coaching trial by combat. He’s riding high this morning and Brian Kelly is hoping he doesn’t get fed to the alligators.    

3. Congrats to Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss on one of the biggest wins in Rebel football history. 

The one knock on Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss had been that he couldn’t win the big game. 

Was that unfair? Yes, probably. Kiffin has gone 42-17 at Ole Miss and has already notched a ten 11 win seasons in Oxford. 

But an early season home loss to Kentucky, which, to be fair, is probably the craziest outcome in the SEC so far this season, and an overtime loss at LSU pushed Ole Miss to the ropes. This was a must win game if a special season was still in reach. And Ole Miss didn’t leave any doubt, utterly dominating Georgia yesterday afternoon for the entire game, unleashing an all time party in Oxford after their win.

What jumped out at me from the game? Ole Miss, a year after being physically dominated in Athens, controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing just 59 rushing yards on 33 attempts for the Bulldogs, while rushing for 134 yards themselves. .

Ole Miss now gets two weeks before a game at Florida and then closes with Mississippi State in Oxford. 

Lane Kiffin getting the Rebels to 10-2 feels highly probable now. 

With the win Ole Miss has also put Georgia’s playoff hopes on the ropes — the Bulldogs have to beat Tennessee next week in Athens and then also beat a decent Georgia Tech team in the final week of the season to get to 10-2. Fortunately for Georgia the remaining three games are all at home. (UMASS is the other team left on the schedule). 

Right now, the Bulldogs just look like a good SEC team, certainly not great. 

But if Georgia bounces back to beat Tennessee next weekend, the Bulldogs will still be in a decent playoff position at 10-2 as well.

(Tennessee has to figure out Nico’s health after a 33-14 win over Mississippi State to run the Vols to 8-1 on the season. Georgia is also the only rival Josh Heupel hasn’t beaten yet at Tennessee. He’s 0-3 against the Bulldogs, but 28-7 in his last 35 in the SEC. Can his Vols take the proverbial next step in Athens? Most think the answer is no. These are much different teams, but two years ago Tennessee was 8-0 and ranked number one in the country headed to Athens, Georgia won comfortably and went on to win the title. Are things different now? We’ll see.) 

4. Miami’s loss at Georgia Tech made it (somewhat) likely that the ACC will only get one playoff team. 

Congrats to Georgia Tech on a huge program win, but the most impactful outcome of the game is every team in the ACC now has at least one loss. 

SMU remains undefeated at 5-0 in conference. If SMU can beat Boston College, Virginia, and California then the 11-1 Mustangs would be in the ACC title game in year one in the conference. That would leave the second ACC title game spot for either Miami or Clemson, who both sit at 5-1 in conference. 

Miami closes with games against Wake Forest and Syracuse. Clemson has just one conference game left — at Pitt next weekend. 

The most likely ACC title game matchup is Miami against SMU. The loser of this game would be 11-2 and, I think, outside the playoff mix when you look at the other at large resumes in play, particularly in the SEC. 

So at this point, while there are still three teams alive in the ACC, the ACC is likely down to one playoff bid, just the conference champion. 

5. The Big 12 is also likely a one playoff team league. 

BYU made a last-second field goal to stay undefeated and sent Utah’s AD into the post-game press conference to rip the officiating.  

What a rivalry this game is. 

But all around BYU Big 12 teams are collapsing, everyone else in conference has at least two losses now. What would the Big 12 title game be if the season were ending today?

BYU against Colorado. 

Yes, Deion’s team. What a remarkable story that would be. 

The only way I see the Big 12 getting two playoff bids is if undefeated BYU lost the Big 12 playoff game to finish the season 12-1. Then the Big 12 might snag a second bid. Otherwise, the Big 12 champion, based on other at large team resumes that I will discuss below, will just get their champion in the playoff. 

Okay, with that in mind, how many teams are still in the mix for the Big 12 title game? Six. 

Yes, six, really. 

There’s a decent chance BYU will be matched up against a team with two losses in conference. (The only way this doesn’t happen is if Colorado wins out, which I don’t think the Buffaloes will). That means Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State, and West Virginia are all still alive for the playoff.

And that one of these teams still has a chance to not only steal a playoff bid, but to get a bye!

Seriously, this automatic bye situation has to be reexamined. (Boise State could also steal a bye too, by the way, if one of these teams with several losses got in the playoff.)   

6. Indiana beat Michigan to run its record to 10-0. 

The Hoosiers now head to Ohio State for a huge game no one would have predicted would be a huge game before the season started. Win that game and Indiana would be headed to the Big Ten title game, lose and the 10-1 Indiana team would just have Purdue left on the schedule. Which means 11-1 seems like a worst case scenario for Indiana. 

What about the rest of the Big Ten?

10-0 Oregon appears to be cruising into the playoff with games left at Wisconsin and home against Washington the only two teams remaining on the schedule. 

Penn State handled Washington with ease and now only has Purdue, at Minnesota and Maryland left on the schedule. That game at Minnesota could be a bit of a challenge, but 11-1 Penn State would be hosting a playoff game. But if Penn State lost one of these final three games? The Nittany Lions might not get in the playoff at 10-2 as their resume, I think, would be worse than several of the 10-2 SEC teams that might be in the at-large mix.   

Given Michigan’s decline to borderline bowl team — the Wolverines have to beat either Northwestern or, good luck, Ohio State to get bowl eligible with six wins — Ohio State has more to fear from Indiana than Michigan. But the Buckeyes at 10-2, if they lost to either Northwestern, Indiana or Michigan might not be a complete lock because then they, like 10-2 Penn State, would get tossed into the SEC at large pool. 

Having said all that, if you’re a Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State or Indiana fan, you have to feel really good about your team’s chances to be in the playoff. 

One debate that I haven’t heard discussed much?

Are we sure 11-1 Indiana or 11-1 Notre Dame would deserve to get in the playoff over 10-2 Alabama, 10-2 Tennessee, 10-2 Georgia or 10-2 Ole Miss?

There’s a scenario where we start talking best wins and best losses for the at-large teams.  

Buckle up for that one, I’ll discuss it more below. 

7. The SEC title and playoff race is a complete mess after Ole Miss’s win over Georgia and Alabama’s win over LSU. 

First, you only have two teams left with only one loss: Texas and Tennessee. 

If both of these teams kept winning, then a battle of UT’s would be your SEC title game in Atlanta. 

But 8-1 Tennessee finishes now with two SEC road games at Georgia and at Vanderbilt. Just about everyone expects a Vol loss at Georgia, which would throw Tennessee back into the two loss muck. 

Texas, meanwhile, finishes with three SEC games, two on the road: at Arkansas, Kentucky and then at Texas A&M, a loss in any of these games and Texas is also back in the 10-2 dog pile.

But, again, if Texas and Tennessee both win out, then the SEC title and playoff picture isn’t that complicated. You’d have four SEC teams, Texas and Tennessee each 11-1, who would be in Atlanta, and then Ole Miss and Alabama, each (likely) 10-2. 

And I think all four of those teams would be in. 

But, again, I don’t think it will be that easy.  

Right now, in addition to Texas and Tennessee with only one conference loss you’ve got five SEC teams with two losses on the year. Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and Missouri. 

I think we can all agree Mizzou, which had a miracle win over Oklahoma, is out of the playoff mix even if the Tigers finish 10-2 because they got blown out by their only two tough opponents: Texas A&M and Alabama. 

That leaves six SEC teams still alive for the playoff. 

And, honestly, a decent shot that at least one of these teams, and maybe more, could finish 10-2 and miss the playoff. 

What’s the most likely finishing stretch scenario?

I think you’re likely to end up with four 10-2 playoff caliber teams: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss are all likely, in my opinion, to finish 10-2. (I think Texas will finish 11-1). 

One of these teams will go to Atlanta to play Texas. (I’m not sure how the four-way tiebreak would work out). 

And one of these teams, and maybe more than one, would be on the playoff ropes. And that’s only if Texas wins out. 

If Texas A&M wins out and beats Texas, then you are likely to have six 10-2 teams. Good luck deciding which of those four teams got in the playoff and which were left out. 

8. While all the focus is on the big games left between contenders in the SEC: Tennessee at Georgia and Texas at Texas A&M, look out for games under the radar that could blow up all of our expectations. 

Especially road games featuring contending teams. 

For instance, if you gave me these five contending team road games below: Texas at Arkansas, Ole Miss at Florida, Texas A&M at Auburn, Alabama at Oklahoma, Tennessee at Vanderbilt, I’d take one upset to occur here. And just one of these upsets could change the entire SEC title and playoff calculus. 

But if no upsets happen and you end up with Texas at 11-1, 10-2 Georgia, 10-2 Tennessee, 10-2 Ole Miss, and 10-2 Alabama then I think 11-1 Indiana and 11-1 Notre Dame are also tossed into the mix

Good luck to the playoff committee then.

How does 11-1 Notre Dame, for instance, stack up against 10-2 Alabama?

Wouldn’t you have to take the Tide here?

How about 10-2 Georgia against 11-1 Indiana?

Again, tough questions are coming if this closing scenario arrives. 

And I still, ultimately, feel like a 10-2 SEC team is going to be hard to leave out.    

9. If all this feels messy to you, it does for oddsmakers too. 

You can get 3-1 or better on anyone out there right now, making this title race more wide open than any I can remember for a long time. 

Here are the current national title odds this morning at FanDuel:

Ohio State 3-1

Oregon +420

Texas +450

Georgia +750

Alabama +850

Ole Miss +950

Notre Dame 20-1

Penn State 20-1

Tennessee 25-1

Indiana 25-1

Miami 35-1

Clemson 55-1

SMU 55-1

Colorado 70-1

BYU 100-1

Boise State 130-1

One argument to prepare yourself for: why is the playoff going to let a team that has virtually no chance of winning a title in the playoff over a 10-2 SEC team that may have a real chance to win the title?  

10. My OutKick Top Ten

1. Oregon

2. Texas

3. Ohio State

4. Tennessee

5. Penn State

6. Indiana

7. BYU

8. Ole Miss

9. Alabama

10. Notre Dame

My Playoff 12:

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)

2. Texas (SEC Champion)

3. BYU (Big 12 Champion)

4. Miami (ACC Champion)

5. Ohio State

6. Tennessee

7. Penn State

8. Indiana

9. Ole Miss

10. Alabama

11. Notre Dame

12. Boise State

So my first round playoff matchups would be Ohio State hosts Boise State, Tennessee hosts Notre Dame, Penn State hosts Alabama, and Indiana hosts Ole Miss. 

12. SEC Power Rankings 1-16

1. Texas

2. Tennessee

3. Ole Miss

4. Alabama

5. Georgia

6. Texas A&M

7. LSU

8. Missouri

9. South Carolina

10. Vanderbilt

11. Arkansas

12. Florida

13. Oklahoma

14. Auburn

15. Kentucky

16. Mississippi State