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This chart was making the rounds widely on social media yesterday, and on the surface it appears to raise afresh the problem of the 2020 vote:

Let’s wait until we see what this chart looks like when all the votes are counted—there may be as many as 10 million outstanding ballots still to be tabulated. This is a scandal of its own, to be sure, but not unusual any more. For starters, the incompleteness of this chart should be obvious from the fact that the Republican bar for 2024 is below the 2020 bar, and it is a certainty that Trump’s vote will easily exceed his 2020 total. (In fact I am wondering about the accuracy of this chart because of that fact.)

Second, we know that Trump peeled away a lot of Biden 2020 voters. How many? We won’t have a sense of this until several detailed post-election voter surveys (not exit polls) are completed. But some of this Democratic slippage may explain why the 2024 Dem vote looks to be so much below the 2020 total.

But that huge 2020 blue Dem spike looks suspicious, no? Maybe, but for example it appears that many Dem voters stayed home. It appears that Cook County (Chicago) in Illinois saw a drop-off from 2020 of almost 500,000 votes. Ah ha!, some skeptics are saying: those were the fraudulent votes in 2020! And while it is true that Cook County specializes in having dead people vote, there was no reason in 2020 to produce 500,000 fraudulent Dem votes because there was no doubt that Biden would win Illinois. So I think something else was going on.

But more serious ought to be given to the simple Occam’s Razor question: if much of the 2020 blue bar vote total was on account of fraudulent votes, why didn’t Democrats run the same drill this year? If you get away with it once, why wouldn’t you do it again? Especially against literal Hitler! (For a cogent take on why a grand-scale steal didn’t happen, see this cogent Twitter post.)

Maybe GOP ballot security efforts worked? That is one possible explanation. More likely in my mind is that Dems exploited the relaxed Covid rules of 2020 to reach every possible voter (including some eligible voters whose ballots were cast for them illegally), but we will never be able to demonstrate conclusively how many and which specific ballots were fraudulent.

But I suspect when all the votes are tabulated and we cross reference the total with what we know already about changing voting patterns of segments of the electorate this year (like hispanics), this chart when revised won’t look so suspicious.