NFL Week 10 Betting Picks From Analyst Who Is 11-4 Over Past Three Weeks

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Well, after having polarizing results in every week of picks so far this season, I finally had a more down-the-middle week. The good news is that it was a winning week, and I’m now 11-4 over the past three weeks.

It’s time to go on a run for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs! 

Week 9 NFL Betting Picks (3-2)

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns UNDER 43 ✅

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons OVER 51.5 ❌

Arizona Cardinals (-1) over Chicago Bears ✅

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) over Detroit Lions ❌

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) over Kansas City Chiefs ✅ 

Not a lot to report here. The Chargers and Browns easily stayed under 40 points, which is what I said the line should have been in the first place. The Cardinals crushed the Bears and the Bucs never trailed Kansas City by more than seven points. 

On the flip side, Atlanta and Dallas never really threatened the OVER, and the Packers were a no-show against the Lions. A mixed bag, but a good week nonetheless. 

SEASON REPORT CARD (21-19, 54%)

SPREAD BETS (15-12, 56%) 

OVER/UNDER BETS (6-7, 46%) 

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

Week 10 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Wednesday afternoon.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 41.5

I can’t believe I’m backing an UNDER on a Chiefs game that is lower than 45 points, but here we are. 

Kansas City is coming off an overtime Monday Night Football game and they might be sluggish starting this game against a clearly inferior opponent. 

The biggest worry about this UNDER, though, is that Bo Nix makes some massive mistakes that lead directly to points for the Chiefs. Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs defensive coordinator, is going to confuse the hell out of Nix and make life miserable. 

That should mean that Denver struggles to score points, especially since the Broncos don’t run the ball particularly well. 

Still, I find it hard to see Denver scoring more than 13 points, and I’ll make the bet that the Chiefs don’t get to 29 themselves. 

San Francisco (-5.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

I backed Tampa Bay last week, and they easily covered against Kansas City, who is better than San Francisco right now. Plus, that game was on the road, and now they’re at home facing a West Coast team playing at 10 a.m. local time. 

So, I should back Tampa again, right? No. This is the perfect time to bail on Tampa and bet on the 49ers. 

San Francisco is coming off of its bye week, and the 49ers desperately needed it. I love the idea of Kyle Shanahan getting an extra week to prepare for the Bucs and this feels like a must-win for San Francisco and a chance to make a statement. 

Plus, Tampa just played a heavily emotional road game and went to overtime on Monday Night Football, which makes a short week even shorter. This is a MASSIVE rest advantage for the 49ers that’s hard to overstate. 

I believe the 49ers are at least a touchdown better than the Buccaneers and the losses of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are really going to show up against San Francisco’s defense. 

New Orleans Saints (+4) over Atlanta Falcons

It seems crazy, but here me out. History tells us that teams undergoing a coaching change often come out swinging under the interim head coach. Sometimes it lasts the rest of the season, sometimes it doesn’t. 

But it usually happens in the first game. Plus, believe-it-or-not, the Saints aren’t that much worse than the Falcons, at least when it comes to advanced analytics. 

There’s a lot of pressure on Derek Carr and I expect him to play one of his best games this season on Sunday. 

In addition, this game means a lot more to the Saints, who just need ANYTHING positive to happen. 

The Falcons have a massive lead in the NFC South and there’s a possibility that this is simply a “pedal off the gas” type of game. All that being said, I’m taking the four points with the home underdog. 

Arizona Cardinals (+0.5) over New York Jets 

I love that there’s suddenly some momentum building with the Jets after beating the Houston Texans last week, and there’s no question is was a big victory.

But the Jets still just aren’t that good. And the Cardinals, quite frankly, are a lot better than people realize. The analysis I gave last week holds true again this week: 

“The Cardinals – who have several good wins this season and all of their losses have come against good teams – are simply better than the Bears.” 

Replace “Bears” with “Jets” and I still wholeheartedly believe it. 

Arizona is better, and they’re at home for the second straight week. The Jets do have a rest advantage after playing on Thursday Night, but the Cardinals are headed into a Week 11 bye. 

I think Arizona empties the cupboard Sunday and beats the Jets. 

Miami Dolphins (+1) over Los Angeles Rams 

The Dolphins hung tough against a very good Buffalo Bills team Sunday in Tua Tagovailoa’s first game back from yet another concussion. 

I expect Miami’s offense to look better this week and the Rams just played a difficult overtime contest against the NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks. 

Los Angeles is a bit of an enigma, in that it’s really hard to figure out if they are a good team or not. I’m leaning toward the idea that the Rams aren’t actually that good. 

And, based on luck, the Rams have been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this season. Conversely, Miami has been very unlucky. 

The Dolphins season is on the line and Mike McDaniel is going to pull out all the stops to make sure they win this game. I think they do it.