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The results are in, and DecisionDeskHQ projects that Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania, 51.2% to 47.8% with 91% reporting. By winning Pennsylvania, Trump has hit 270 Electoral College votes, and has been elected the 47th president of the United States.
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The battle for Pennsylvania was hard-fought on both sides, with both campaigns spending a ton of time and resources there. The polls were all over the place. The final RealClearPolitics average for Pennsylvania had Trump at +0.4. He led by nearly five points before Joe Biden dropped out in July. Since then, the average was neck-and-neck, with both candidates leading in the average at different points.
The final polls were all over the place. Trump held a slight lead in most polls, including AtlasIntel (+1), The Hill/Emerson (+1), Trafalgar Group (+1), and Rasmussen Reports (+1). However, Harris led in a few polls, notably Muhlenberg College (+2), Marist (+2), and Data for Progress (+2). Several polls showed a tie, including NY Times/Siena, USA Today/Suffolk, and Morning Consult. Notable outliers include Echelon Insights showing Trump with a larger lead (+6) and the Washington Post with Harris ahead by +4.
Without Joe Biden and his Pennsylvania roots on the ballot, Kamala was always going to have a tougher time locking up Pennsylvania. Sen. John Fetterman has been warning the Democrats that Trump was stronger in the state than people realize.
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“And anybody spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing,” Fetterman told the New York Times last month. “I was doing an event in Indiana County—very, very red—and there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long, and it was dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it’s like, ‘Where does this all come from?’ It’s the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it’s like something very special exists there. And that doesn’t mean that I admire it. It’s just — it’s real.”
Now that Trump has won Pennsylvania, you can bet many on the left will blame Kamala’s selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the first and most consequential mistake of her campaign, and that she likely would have won the state had she picked Gov. Josh Shapiro. According to some reports, Kamala didn’t particularly care for the fact that Shapiro seemed “too ambitious.” Though it is widely believed that the fear of backlash from the antisemitic wing of the Democratic Party was the real reason.
Without a doubt, Kamala’s choice of Walz as her running mate will be seen as a major factor in Kamala’s inability to win the Keystone State. In fact, she spent most of her final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania, a clear sign that she was working hard to defend the state from being flipped to Trump.
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The signs that Kamala was losing Pennsylvania have been there for weeks. Last month, Sen. Bob Casey subtly distanced him from Biden and Harris while embracing some of Trump’s policies in a campaign ad. In the ad, a bipartisan couple highlights Casey’s willingness to buck his own party. The Republican wife notes that Casey “bucked Biden to protect fracking” and aligned with Trump “to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China.”