Harris’s Path Narrows as 6 Swing States Too Close to Call

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Few issues reported on Election Day as in-person voting hit higher numbers than 2020, while mail-ins dropped

With votes in critical battleground states still being counted, Vice President Kamala Harris faced a narrowing path to victory as her opponent, former President Donald Trump, took the lead.

Reports of strong turnout have been coming from across the country, particularly in rural areas. Yet some key swing states expect to take days to finish counting, leaving the final result in limbo.

As of 11:30 p.m. ET, when all polls were closed, save for those in Hawaii and Alaska, The Associated Press had given Trump an 83 percent chance of victory with 286 electoral votes, up from 60 percent and 272 votes on Tuesday morning. The winner needs 270 electoral votes.

Trump dominated his home state of Florida with a more than 13-point lead over Harris with more than 95 percent of votes counted.

He also held an almost three-point lead in Georgia where 94 percent of the votes were counted by 11:30 p.m.

In Pennsylvania, Trump led by more than 3 points with 70 percent of the votes counted by 11:30 p.m.

He also reached a nearly three-point lead in Wisconsin with 62 percent of the vote counted by 11:30 p.m.

Harris swept Illinois by nearly eight points with 84 percent of the votes counted by 11:30 p.m.

Trump had taken the lead in Michigan by 1 point with 41 percent of the votes counted by 11:35 p.m.

In Virginia, Harris pulled ahead by nearly three points with more than 95 percent of the votes counted by 11:30 p.m.

The candidates were virtually tied in Arizona with 55 percent of the votes counted by 11:30 p.m.

For Harris to win, she’d need Arizona as well as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump would only need Pennsylvania and either Arizona or Wisconsin.

Less by Mail, More in Person

Mail-in voting dropped by more than one-third since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic kept many voters from the polls and more than 92 million mail-in ballots were sent out to people. More than 65 million of them were cast. This time, about 67 million ballots were sent and less than 40 million were cast by election night, according to data posted by the U.S. Elections Project run by Michael McDonald, political science associate professor at the University of Florida.

Based on about half the states—the ones with available data—about 58 percent of Republicans have voted by mail compared to less than 52 percent of Democrats. That’s a reversal from four years ago, when, on the night of the election, more than 71 percent of Democrats had voted by mail versus just about 67 percent of Republicans, according to the U.S. Elections Project.

Weaker mail-in voting was expected to make for stronger early in-person and Election Day turnout. Though the final numbers aren’t clear yet, anecdotes from around the country noted people lining up to vote as early as before 6 a.m. and polling places crowded in many rural areas that haven’t seen such traffic in previous elections.

Issues and Hiccups

Not all went smoothly at the polls, though most issues have been minor.

Peach County, Georgia, replaced its election management system on the morning of Election Day, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told the press at 2:35 p.m. Somebody plugged a space heater and “fried” the election system, he said. Voting wasn’t affected, he added.

Less than a dozen precincts in Georgia received bomb threats originating in Russia, Raffensperger said. Law enforcement checked the locations in the morning. Some of them postponed voting for 30 to 40 minutes, he said.

A judge extended voting in two precincts in Cobb County, Georgia, until 7:20 p.m., the county government stated on X.

Around 2 p.m., Milwaukee election officials ordered a recount of all absentee ballots already tabulated, more than 31,000, after discovering that doors covering on/off switches on the tabulators weren’t properly sealed.

A court in deep-red Cambria County, Pennsylvania, extended voting by two hours to 10 p.m. after incorrectly printed ballots prevented people from having them properly scanned by the tabulators, local media reported.

A Luzerne County judge ordered voting extended until 9:30 p.m. in Laflin Borough, Pennsylvania, after the polling place opened 90 minutes late, the borough announced on its website.

The State Board of Election in North Carolina announced that it voted to extend voting by 30 minutes until 8 p.m. in one precinct in Burke County and one precinct in Wilson County—one due to a printer issue and the other for difficulty in booting up a laptop with the official pollbook.

Candidates Awaiting Results

Harris concluded her campaign on Nov. 4 shortly before midnight with an 18-minute speech at a rally in front of the Philadelphia Museum of Art.

“We have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the page on a decade of politics that has been driven by fear and division,” she said.

“America is ready for a fresh start.”

Harris held her election night watch party at Howard University in Washington.

Trump concluded his last presidential campaign rally with an almost two-hour speech in Grand Rapids, Michigan, around 2 a.m.

He hit his core points of reversing illegal immigration, boosting the economy, and reforming the Washington establishment.

“We’re running against a very evil system and we have to defeat that system,” he said.

Trump held his election night watch party at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in Florida after a private event at the Mar-a-Lago resort, his residence.