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Pollster Nate Silver has more than just his reputation on the line during the 2024 presidential election.

Last month, Silver bet pro-Trump investor Keith Rabois that Donald Trump would not win Florida by more than 8 points.

“You are a buffoon. Minimum Trump win in FL is 8 points and more likely 10-14,” Rabois wrote to Silver on X.

“Dude you’ve gotta stop huffing the Twitter vibes. How much money are you willing to bet on a Trump +8 point spread in Florida?” Silver responded.

“$100k,” Rabois said back.

Silver accepted. And he’s very likely to lose the bet.

As of publication, Trump leads Kamala Harris by 14 points with over 94% of the vote counted, per the Fox News Decision Desk. According to the Polymarket, Trump has a 100% chance of winning Florida by more than 8 points.

Take a look:

Rabois quoted the Polymarket chart on X with a simple “:)” on Tuesday night. Silver has not acknowledged the bet since.

Did you bet on the election? If so, how much and on whom?