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People are still voting, and anything can happen, but we have some good news out of Pennsylvania today that spells major trouble to Kamala Harris.

“Pennsylvania and in the particular county here that is very important is Philadelphia County,” explained Fox News’s John Roberts. “There are estimates that, because of the depressed early vote for Democrats, that Kamala Harris is gonna need to pull 700,000 votes here in Philadelphia in order to pull out a win.”

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That’s a pretty big number, especially when you put it into historical context.

“Let’s take a look at the historic vote here,” Roberts continued. “Hillary Clinton got 560,000 votes in Philadelphia in 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden got 603,000. So So she’s gonna need another 100,000 votes here in Philadelphia to hit that 700,000 margin.”

Despite their insistence that the 2024 race is a nail-biter, the early numbers in key areas like Philadelphia suggest that Kamala Harris faces challenges that Joe Biden didn’t. There’s little reason to believe that Kamala can outperform Biden’s 2020 numbers.

No one needs to be reminded not to get overconfident. So please, whether you live a battleground state or not, make sure every Trump-supporting friend, family member, neighbor, and even casual acquaintance gets out to vote. 

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Assuming this pans out, there’s going to be a lot of discussion about what went wrong for Harris in Pennsylvania. The first thing people will say, of course, is her selection of Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate.

The early vote has been an oft-cited sign that Democrats were struggling headed into Election Day, but the Harris campaign nevertheless has projected confidence that she’ll win. That said, on a 2WAY livestream on Tuesday, Mark Halperin pointed out that while the campaign expresses confidence, Democrat insiders like Doug Sosnick and Jim Messina have voiced worries on national media about the Democrats’ underperforming in the early vote.

“Well, look. I think it’s a couple things,” Messina said on MSNBC over the weekend about what the Harris campaign’s biggest fear is right now. “The early vote numbers are a little scary, and you and I have been texting back and forth. Republicans didn’t do what they did last time. Last time, Trump said don’t early vote, and so they didn’t. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers.”

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Halperin noted that while Democrats are projecting a win, their confidence appears guarded. He explained that Democrats say, “We’re gonna win. We’re gonna win. It’s gonna be close, but we’re gonna win.”

This raised a red flag with Halperin: “I don’t know how you can say, if you think it’s gonna be as close as they do, I don’t know how you say you’re gonna win.”