Florida Election Preview: While the State Is Fairly Considered a Red Lock

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As a longtime resident of the Sunshine State, the past decade has been a remarkable evolution. For the longest time, this place has been known for two things: Residents behaving like this is the waiting room for Bellevue (Florida Man/Woman is a real thing), and being a dependable Democratic enclave. Even so, for the most part, we are not driven by politics in our daily activities. But over the last ten years or so, we have witnessed a tidal shift.

Things began years ago with the state GOP leaders working to get registrations more in balance, and it was jarring for many when parity was achieved. As of today, those rolls continue to swell, with GOP registered voters now showing a 1.1 million advantage. Ron DeSantis gained reelection by a massive margin, the state Democrats – led by the inept Nikki Fried – are a floundering punchline, and the national party has all but abandoned the state as a lost cause.

Just look at the lock the Republicans have on the legislature: May as well call us “Maroon State.”

Even so, there are still some interesting things to find on a ballot that is otherwise considered to be a walkover. Probably the biggest race of note is for the Senate, where Rick Scott is up for reelection against former one-term U.S. House member Debbie Murcasel-Powell. If the DNC is dropping any money in this state it is in the hope of flipping this Senate seat in a push for Murcasel-Powell, as her TV ad spend has been significant. You cannot watch a game without seeing her ads. But polling shows she is significantly lagging by about -5 percent.

Sidenote to the state shading to a deep red: When Rick Scott initially ran for this Senate position following his term-limited run as governor, he narrowly edged out incumbent Bill Nelson. This was helped by the fact that the expected support for Nelson in the Orlando region from the glut of Puerto Rican voters did not materialize. It was long suspected that influx would tilt the state blue, as we are the state with the most PR residents, but the reality is those were people moving from an island steeped in Democrat corruption and incompetence and were not beholden to the party. As a result, Scott’s victory in 2018 meant it was the first time Florida had two GOP senators since the 1800s.

If there is any drama and intrigue to be seen, it may be in the U.S. District-13 race, where Ana Paulina Luna is up for reelection. The polling on this one has been mixed for both parties, but the more recent results show her with a favorable edge. While she is expected to retain her seat with about a 75 percent chance, most other House races for either party appear to be a lock. In other words, the likes of Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz are not going anywhere except back to D.C.

That means the main intrigue seen in Florida arrives with some amendment issues, and two stand out: abortion and legalizing marijuana. Yes, this stems from the Dobbs decision, and the state has seen tightened restrictions over the years. Initially, the law was changed to a 15-week threshold in 2022, but the newest heartbeat ban has the limit placed at six weeks. This amendment stretches that number to a 23-week threshold. As for marijuana, this has been a long-lobbied effort to legalize recreational use for those 21 and over. Medicinal usage is already permitted, and frankly, the ability to get your “grass card” is as effortless as it gets; see a doctor and claim anxiety, then drop a few hundred, and you are free to dose at will.

Both of these measures seem popular, but possibly not enough. Ballot measures for amendments require a 60 percent level of approval and indicators are that this may fall short in both cases. One local investigative reporter cites the challenge being a depressed turnout by Democrats in Miami-Dade.

Amendment 4, restoring abortion rights in Florida by striking down the 6-week ban, appears to be in serious trouble.
One reason is the failure of Miami Dade Democrats to turn out and vote. Republicans have a 31,000 vote advantage over Democrats heading into Election Day 1/x

— Jim DeFede (@DeFede) November 4, 2024

In that region, the party line has been steadily sliding in each election. Once considered a county as blue as the Chicago Bears helmet, it has been turning with each voting cycle, and it will be interesting to see this year’s results.

This is the paradox we face now in Florida. The state has become a rock-solid conservative destination and the envy of much of the country. This is unsettling for those of us used to being the dictionary illustration of “unhinged psychosis,” but it is a welcome change politically – even as we retain that distinct “Florida Man” charm.