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By Stephen Moore and Arthur Laffer

Surprise, surprise.

With the election now upon us, it all comes down to the economy.

The pocketbook issues. The cost of everything from gas to groceries to mortgage payments. Paychecks. Job security. 401(k) plans. Our kids’ future.

If you listen to the media or to Nobel prize-winning economists in their ivory towers, the US economy is marvelous. Amazing.

But the only verdict on the economy that matters will come from voters on Tuesday.

What makes this presidential election unique is that we have two candidates who have actual records in the White House: Donald Trump’s four years as president and Kamala Harris’ four years as vice president, where she was “integral,” she’s said, to all the major decisions.

And since she has admitted that she wouldn’t do much of anything different than Joe Biden, we can expect more of the same if she wins.

So we can listen to the so-called experts with their cracked crystal balls and their Ouija boards.

Or we can actually compare their records.

In our new book, “The Trump Economic Miracle,” that’s exactly what we do — and on almost all of the 20 or so measures we’ve examined, Trump’s record on the economy was far superior to that of Biden-Harris.

That’s especially true when you take out the once-in-a-century pandemic year of 2020, when most of the economy shut down.

Let’s review some of those major pocketbook indicators.

Inflation: We were shocked to hear the Nobel-winners argue that Harris would be the better choice for controlling inflation. Wrong.

The average annual inflation rate under Trump was 1.9%, versus 6.4% under Biden-Harris. Inflation has been three times higher under the Democrats.

Family income: Median family incomes surged by $7,690 under Trump from 2017 to 2019, not counting the COVID year. Under Biden from 2021 to 2023 (2024 numbers are not yet out), the increase was a meager $1,050 — even though he presided over the post-COVID “recovery.”

Minority income: Under Trump, black Americans gained $4,810 (2017-2020) in annual income. Under Biden, they gained less than half that: $2,180 (2020-2023).

Hispanic Americans fared even worse in the Biden-Harris economy. When Trump was president, their incomes increased by $5,470, versus a gain of just $700 under Biden.

Mortgage payments: When Trump left office, the average monthly mortgage payment in the US was $969. Today, after four years of Biden-Harris, that same mortgage payment costs double, or $1,868.

Deficits: Neither Trump nor Biden have admirable records on the federal deficit. But what is clearly far-fetched is the Nobel economists’ statement that Harris would do better than Trump in reducing deficit spending.

For our analysis we took out the years 2020 (a Trump year) and 2021 (a Biden year), when both presidents were grappling with a rare pandemic that caused massive deficit spending.

Excluding those years, the average budget deficit for Trump was roughly $900 billion a year (in today’s dollars), versus $1.5 trillion under Biden and Harris.

Gross Domestic Product: Again taking out the two COVID years of 2020 and 2021, the average GDP growth was 2.7% for Trump and 2.8% under Biden-Harris, giving the Democrats the slight advantage.

Stock market: The stock market was strong under both presidencies, but it’s a myth that the financial markets were better under Biden-Harris — a misunderstanding that fails to take inflation into account. Investors care about their after-inflation returns.

When we adjust for inflation, we find the real S&P increased by 54% while Trump was in office — twice as much as the 24% rise under Biden and Harris.

401(k) plans: Seniors and soon-to-be retirees have been the biggest victims of the Biden-Harris agenda, we found; 401(k) plans gained 30.3% in real value under Trump, versus a loss of 9.2% in value under Biden.

Private-sector jobs: A big share of the jobs created under Biden-Harris have been unnecessary government positions. Another big share of the jobs are “comeback hires” after COVID ended, as businesses reopened and Americans returned to normalcy.

But if we compare the job creation from private employers before and after the pandemic, under Trump employment rose by 6.4 million from 2017 to 2019. Biden increased private employment above the pre-pandemic level by just 2.1 million through September 2024.

Many reasons other than the economy — national security, crime, abortion, the environment, personality — may spur voters to choose Trump or Harris.

But our analysis shows that if Americans opt for Harris on Election Day, they may be voting to make themselves poorer.

Stephen Moore, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, and Arthur Laffer, president of Laffer Associates, are co-authors of the new book “The Trump Economic Miracle.”