All the Big Races to Watch on Election Night

Other outcomes are less certain. These races will decide control of the upper chamber:

• Montana: In ruby-red Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) faces off against GOP challenger Tim Sheehy. It’s a tough race in a state Trump won by more than 16 percent. Tester trails Sheehy by nearly 7 points in polling.

• Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is similarly positioned in the Buckeye State, which backed Trump by 8 percent in 2020. He stayed ahead of Tester in polling for most of the cycle, however, in the final hours before the election, Moreno surged to take the lead in the RealClearPolling aggregate. Polls still show it’s expected to be a close race.

• Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) faces Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas). Though Allred has drawn national attention, polling still shows Cruz leading by 4 percent. Still, Democrats see it as a rare pick-up opportunity this cycle.

• Nebraska: Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) faces a tight race with Dan Osborn, who’s running as an independent in the deep red state. Polling shows Fischer retaining the advantage. Still, an upset could happen.

• Arizona: In the Arizona seat vacated by outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a Republican, faces off against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Gallego has retained a compelling polling lead across the cycle. Nevertheless, a strong performance by Trump could tilt the race in Lake’s favor.

• Nevada: In neighboring Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) faces a challenge by Republican Sam Brown, a war vet who suffered severe burns in combat. As in Arizona, Democrats are favored in polling. Still, as with other swing state Senate races, presidential returns will impact the outcome

• Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is in the political fight of his life against Republican Dave McCormick. Once an electoral juggernaut, Casey won his previous two bids by 9 points or more. This time, polling shows him just over 2 percent ahead of McCormick in the crucial state.
• Michigan: The situation is similar in Michigan, where Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) are competing for the Senate seat left open by Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) retirement. Polling shows a tight race that has cycled between the two, though Slotkin appears to have an edge.
• Wisconsin: The tightest Rust Belt race currently is Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) faces a strong challenge from entrepreneur Eric Hovde. Polling in the infamously difficult-to-poll state shows just a 1.8 percent Baldwin lead.

While New York isn’t expected to be a battleground on a presidential level, it’s certainly one on the House level; races here were instrumental in Republicans’ 2022 reclamation of the House.

These districts will remain crucial as the GOP looks to keep its majority in the lower congressional chamber.

• New York’s 1st Congressional District: Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) faces Democrat and former CNN commentator Jon Avlon in this Republican-leaning Long Island district. A Newsday/Siena College poll conducted Oct. 13–17 shows LaLota leading by 3 percentage points.
• New York’s 4th Congressional District: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) faces Democrat Laura Gillen in a rematch from 2022 in his Long Island district, which President Joe Biden won in 2020 by double digits. Two years later, in 2022, D’Esposito held on with 51.8 percent of the vote. This year, some polling shows a slight lead for D’Esposito. However, a Newsday/Siena poll published Oct. 22 showed a huge 12-point margin for the Democrat.
• New York’s 17th Congressional District: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) faces former Rep. Mondaire Jones in his Rockland County district. Lawler narrowly won in 2022, beating incumbent Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), then-leader of House Democrats’ campaign arm. Polling has consistently shown an advantage for Lawler, who leads by 5 points in the most recent poll.
• New York’s 19th Congressional District: In another 2022 rematch, Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) faces Democrat Josh Riley in this Hudson Valley district. Molinaro narrowly won last time in what is a bellwether district. Current polling gives Riley a 4-point advantage.
• New York’s 22nd Congressional District: Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) faces Democrat John Mannion in this Democrat-leaning district, which includes Syracuse and Utica. The most recent poll, sponsored by Williams, shows a dead heat race.

These races are considered close enough that they could go either way. The outcomes will depend in part on both candidates’ top of the ticket performance in the region.

• Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District: Democrat Rep. Susan Wild faces a tough fight for her Allentown, Pennsylvania, district, where polling shows an advantage for Democrats largely within the margin of error.
• Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District: Republican incumbent Rep. Scott Perry faces challenger Janelle Stelson in his Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, district. Most polls show a nail-biter race, though one recent outlier had Stelson up by nine points.
• Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District: Democrat Rep. Chris Deluzio faces  Republican State Rep. Rob Mercuri in his western Pennsylvania district. Current polling favors Deluzio to retain the seat.
• Ohio’s 13th Congressional District: GOP challenger Kevin Coughlin is just one point ahead of incumbent Democrat Rep. Emilia Sykes in her Akron, Ohio, district.
• Michigan’s 10th Congressional District: GOP incumbent John James and Democrat challenger Carl Marlinga are tied ahead of the race for this eastern Michigan district.
• Michigan’s 8th Congressional District: Republicans are narrowly favored in polling to flip the central Michigan district, which includes the city of Flint, in the seat being vacated by incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.). Recent polls in the district show Republican Paul Junge edging out Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet by 1 percent.
• Michigan’s 7th Congressional District: Republicans are also favored in the Lansing area seat being vacated by Slotkin. Polling shows a consistent lead for Republican Tom Barrett over Democrat Curtis Hertel.
• Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District: In Wisconsin’s only competitive House race, GOP incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden is in a tight race with Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Polls show a toss-up race.

Like New York, California isn’t likely to back Republicans for the presidency or the Senate.

These races will again be pivotal this year as both parties seek to claim control of the House.

• California’s 3rd Congressional District: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), who was first elected in 2022, faces Jessica Morse in this Republican-leaning, suburban Sacramento district.
• California’s 13th Congressional District: Freshman incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) faces Democrat Adam Gray in this Democrat-leaning district that includes Fresno County. Polling here is sparse.
• California’s 22nd Congressional District: Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, faces Democrat Rudy Salas, former California State Assembly member, in a 2022 rematch. Recent polling shows a slight advantage for Salas.
• California’s 27th Congressional District: Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) faces Democrat George Whitesides in this north Los Angeles district. Polling from September shows a slight Democrat advantage.
• California’s 41st Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), who’s been in Congress since 1993, faces Democrat Will Rollins in his Republican-leaning district that includes Palm Springs. Polling shows a tied race.
• California’s 45th Congressional District: Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) faces Democrat Derek Tran in her Los Angeles-area district. Recent polls show a volatile race, with a slight advantage for Tran.
• California’s 47th Congressional District: After Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Calif.) decision to vacate her seat and pursue what was ultimately a failed bid for the Senate, the race is a toss-up between Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min.

Several U.S. border state seats are also expected to be close races.

• Texas’s 34th Congressional District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) faces a 2022 rematch with former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores, who he defeated by 8.5 percent in 2022. Polling this time shows a race that could go either way.
• New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) faces a rematch with former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell, who he defeated by just 1,350 votes in 2022. The race is seen as one that could go either way.
• Arizona’s 6th Congressional District: Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, the incumbent, faces Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel in a toss-up race. There’s no recent polling on the race available.
• Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: Incumbent Republican David Schweikert faces a toss-up race with Democrat Amish Shah. Polling shows a tied race.

A handful of other seats are also expected to be contested.

• Alaska’s at-Large Congressional District: Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) won an upset victory against former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in 2022, and will seek to hold the seat amid a strong challenge from Republican Nicholas Begich in the traditionally red state.
• Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) faces a tough challenge in his district, which voted for Trump by a seven-point margin in 2020. Polling shows a hyper-competitive race with Republican challenger Austin Theriault.
• Washington’s 3rd Congressional District: Freshman incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) faces a rematch with Republican Joe Kent. Gluesenkamp Perez narrowly defeated Kent in an upset in 2022; current polling shows a tie.
• Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) faces a rematch with Tony Vargas for his Omaha-area seat. Vargas has consistently led polls in the blue-trending district.
• Iowa’s 1st Congressional District: GOP incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks  faces an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Jordan Bohannon in a race where polling shows a toss-up.
• Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District: Republican incumbent Zach Nunn also faces a strong challenge from Democrat Lacon Baccam in this Des Moines district. Current polling shows Baccam is slightly favored.
• New Hampshire Governor’s Race: Following New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s decision not to seek reelection in the Granite State, Republicans hope to keep the seat in GOP hands. Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte will face off against former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, a Democrat. Polling has shown a lead for Ayotte across most of the cycle, though a recent outlier poll found Craig leading by a whopping 18-point margin.

Voters will also vote on a series of ballot measures in states across the country.

Here are the ones to watch:

• Abortion: Voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota will weigh amendments creating a constitutional right to abortion in their states. Similar measures have passed in every state where they’ve received a vote so far, including dark-red Kansas and Kentucky.
• Crime: California’s Proposition 36 strengthens penalties for fentanyl distribution and shoplifting, rolling back a 2014 law that lowered penalties for these crimes. Arizona residents will decide if police have the power to arrest illegal immigrants, and will vote on a measure that requires life in prison—wth no parole—for child sex traffickers.
• Drug Policies: Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota will all decide on recreational marijuana use, while Nebraska looks to legalize cannabis for medicinal purposes. A Massachusetts measure would make psychedelics legal for those over the age of 21.
• Ranked-Choice Voting: Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and the District of Columbia will consider joining Alaska and Maine in using ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to select several choices for political offices. Missouri, meanwhile, is looking to ban it outright, while Alaskans will consider getting rid of the system.
• Pay and Benefits: California, Alaska, and Missouri are all weighing a state minimum wage bump. The California measure would raise minimum wage to $18 an hour; the other two states are considering a bump to $15 an hour.