Wisconsin Election Preview: Will the Badger State Turn Red?

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The Badger State

Wisconsin is a Rust Belt state, but it’s a little different than the other Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and so on. Wisconsin, outside of Milwaukee, has a somewhat more rural and small-town population. It’s a state that Joe Biden carried in 2020, but Donald Trump won in 2016; much will depend on which direction the Badger State goes in 2024.

Despite my current residence, I’m pretty familiar with Wisconsin, having grown up just across the Mississippi. Back in the day, I spent a lot of time fishing, exploring, and just wandering around Wisconsin; my first wife came from Eau Claire, a small town in west-central Wisconsin. It’s a quintessentially Midwestern state – and a state that both presidential campaigns are fighting over in the current contest. There is also a Senate seat being contested in Wisconsin, where incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin is facing a Republican challenger, Eric Hovde.

So what can we expect from Wisconsin on Election Night?

What to Look For – POTUS

The Badger State will contribute 10 electoral votes in the presidential contest.

Wisconsin, in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, is a nail-biter. RCP has Kamala Harris leading by 0.4 points – well within any poll’s margin of error. But while Wisconsin polls have been fairly consistent, the most recent survey cited, a The Hill/Emerson poll conducted 10/24-10/29, lists the contest as a dead tie. That may or may not be significant, depending on how much pollsters have adapted their models since the last go-around. Donald Trump, in 2016 and 2020, outperformed polling numbers in Wisconsin, despite losing the state to Joe Biden in 2020.

Trump’s prospects in Wisconsin, then, may well be better than expected. Most of Wisconsin is more white and more small-town/rural than the rest of the Rust Belt, and those are cohorts that tend to skew more to the right – and enthusiasm on the right seems to be pretty good in this election. If Trump manages to take Wisconsin this year, it will likely be part of a larger Rust Belt sweep that will put him back in the White House.

Madison and Milwaukee are the jurisdictions to watch for Democrat turnout – both are urban, and both are Democrat strongholds. Three Republican-leaning counties to watch are Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. Trump won all of these handily in 2020, but these are “collar” counties around Milwaukee, and may be drifting to the left.

What to Look For – Senate

The Wisconsin Senate race is a tougher nut for the GOP candidate to crack. The RCP averages have Democrat Tammy Baldwin leading Republican Eric Hovde by almost two points, and over the last month or so, if anything, Baldwin has held or gained slightly. Incumbency, as always, is a powerful advantage to overcome. Much will depend on how long and how broad Donald Trump’s coattails end up being, and how voter enthusiasm for Trump translates into down-ticket races.

When Will We Know?

Wisconsin’s state law requires ballots to be counted on election day, except only provisional and overseas ballots. We should start seeing results very quickly after the 9:00 PM (Eastern) poll closures, but it’s important to note that the smaller, more rural counties typically report more quickly than the blue-leaning urban areas, so we won’t know much about which way either contest is going for some time, and if it’s very close for either presidential or Senate races, it may not be until sometime after Election Day.

Legal Challenges

On Monday, the Republican National Committee sued the Milwaukee Elections Commission over a plan to limit the numbers of poll watchers in certain districts.

Wisconsin is one of the key battleground states in the ongoing presidential election, and so the state’s polling places and ballot counts are – and should be – closely scrutinized to ensure transparency and election integrity. In Milwaukee, a problem has already arisen. On Monday, one day before the general election, the Republican National Committee announced in a mass email distribution that they are suing the Milwaukee Elections Commission over a plan to limit the numbers of poll watchers in certain districts.

As of this writing, there has been no decision on this suit; we will be watching and will bring you updates as soon as there is any movement.

Stay tuned. We will be bringing you updates on all of the battleground states on Election Night as results come in. If you haven’t already, sign up for a VIP account, which will give you access to our live blogging of the election night action. A Gold account gets you access to all of the Townhall media sites, and a Platinum membership gives you all that as well as a host of feature-length films and access to our swag shop. Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for a 50% discount. I was a Gold member long before I was a contributor here at RedState – trust me, it’s worth it.