The One North Carolina Congressional Race to Pay Close Attention to on

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In addition to the presidential race, also on the ballot is control of the House and Senate.

While Decision Desk HQ’s most recent forecast model has predicted that Republicans have a 74 percent chance of taking control of the Senate, their House forecast gives the GOP a 53 percent chance, which will make the latter race results especially interesting (and nerve-wracking!) to watch come in on Election Day.

“Although House Republicans fell short of their lofty expectations in 2022, they managed to flip nine seats, securing a majority and the Speaker’s gavel,” they noted while adding, “They must now defend this narrow majority against the Democrats, who hold 213 seats—just five seats shy of the 218 needed to regain control.”

22 House races are considered “toss-ups” according to Cook Political Report. One of them is North Carolina’s First Congressional District, which has largely flown under the radar due in part to so much focus on and airtime being given to key Senate races, and also because the nominees aren’t known for saying anything particularly controversial that would draw a lot of media attention.

Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat, is the first-term incumbent while Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army Colonel who is backed by GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, is the Republican vying for that seat.

The district has been in Democrat hands since 1883, but recent redistricting made it more competitive in this election cycle and more open to a Republican sliding in and making inroads with an area that is considered part of the Southern “Black Belt” in American politics.

Because of the demographics of the district, it is considered one to watch not just for what it could mean for House control but also because it may give clues on overall black turnout and how the Old North State may go in the presidential election, as explained by Sabato Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik:

A telling district like this to watch is North Carolina’s First District, which Representative Don Davis, a Democrat, is trying to defend. The district covers some rural and small-town areas with significant Black populations, with whom the Democratic Party’s national troubles have been evident: Biden’s districtwide victory in 2020 was down a few points from Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Given North Carolina’s early 7:30 p.m. poll closing, this race might be an early indicator of Democratic performance with Black voters more broadly. The district was redrawn this year, which has made it harder for Democrats to defend, so if the race is tight, that might have something to do with it, but weaker Democratic turnout than in 2020 would still be revealing.

A Davis loss would be a blow to Democratic hopes of winning a majority and would be consistent with Trump winning North Carolina, while a Davis victory — particularly if the margin is not that tight — may suggest Democratic troubles with Black voters were overstated.

Interestingly, late last month, Sabato inexplicably moved this district to “leans D” after previously having it as a “toss-up.” A reliable GOP source tells me that based on the numbers from early voting and changes in the electorate, there’s no hard data so far that supports this district being placed into a “leans D” category:

This doesn’t tab in mail-in ballots received over the weekend, but the fact remains. The 2024 Electorate compared to 2020 for the new First Congressional District is 10 percent less Democrat, five percent more Republican (that’s a 15 percent swing), five percent more Unaffiliated, and six percent less Black voters through early voting.

On the Unaffiliated split, if EV trends hold – Unaffiliateds would have to be breaking at margins far better than in the past for the Democratic candidate(s). While that, I think, is unlikely – it’s possible.

Presumably, we’ll find out Tuesday night. As always, stay tuned.