Could Trump Pull Off a Massive Upset in Nevada?

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The first thing to bear in mind when considering whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win Nevada is that nearly ninety percent of the state’s population lives in Clark and Washoe countries, in which are located its three major cities, Las Vegas, Henderson and Reno. Like cities all over the country, Las Vegas, Henderson and Reno are deep blue: city-dwellers seem to like their homes being turned into crime-ridden wastelands. Thus, despite the fact that virtually the entire remainder of the state is heavily pro-Trump, Harris will likely come out on top there based on support from those two counties alone. And yet…

Trump can’t be counted out in Nevada. Three days before the election, five out of nine polls showed him leading Harris in Nevada, with the Susquehanna poll giving him a comfortable lead of no fewer than six points. Only two gave Harris the edge, with the other two showing the race as too close to call. Nevada hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since it chose George W. Bush over the effete Eastern elitist John Kerry in 2004, but Harris can’t count on Nevada as Democrats have in the recent past: Nevada voters may end up finding her vapidity and inauthenticity as off-putting as they found Kerry’s patrician arrogance.

Another indication that Trump has a real shot in Nevada is the fact that the polls are unanimous in showing Democrat incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen leading her Republican opponent, the war hero Sam Brown. The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported Friday, however, that Brown had “closed some of the gap between himself” and Rosen: “The latest poll shows Rosen with 48.6 percent support and Brown with 44.9 percent. A total of 4.2 percent are undecided.” Polling in October, by contrast, “had Rosen with 50 percent support, Brown with 42 percent and 5 percent undecided. The one from September had Rosen at 48 percent and Brown at 41 percent.”

Nevadans will also vote in four congressional races, and no surprises look to be in store: there are three incumbent Democrats and one incumbent Republican, all four are running again, and all four are leading in all the polls.

More drama surrounds two of the seven ballot measures. Nevada Question 3, the Top-Five Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative, would approve a state constitutional amendment that would establish, according to Ballotpedia, “open top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections, which would apply to congressional, gubernatorial, state executive official, and state legislative elections.”

These are some of the principal weapons that leftists have been using around the country to disenfranchise Americans and establish the nation as a one-party state. It would also further disenfranchise and marginalize the residents of rural Nevada, who already have little enough choice as it is due to the demographic predominance of the three major cities. If Question 3 passes, and it very well may, Nevada voters in congressional, gubernatorial or other races may never again get a chance to vote for a Republican or any patriotic candidate. If the top five vote-getters in the primary are all Democrats, no Republicans will appear on the ballot in the general election.

Ranked-choice voting is even worse. It allows voters to pick a second choice, and in some cases, other choices beyond that. If no candidate has the majority, the votes given to minor candidates are reallocated according to second-choice picks, and third-choice picks if necessary, until a majority candidate emerges.

In our polarized political environment today, this could destroy the chances of patriotic candidates ever to achieve victory. They will have their bases of support, but those who prefer establishment candidates will rank every other candidate ahead of them as their second and third choices, and they’ll have no chance of attaining a majority.

Nevadans will thus be voting on a poison-pill measure that could destroy the possibility of free and fair elections in that state. They’ll also be voting on Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, which “supports providing for a state constitutional right to an abortion, providing for the state to regulate abortion after fetal viability, except where medically indicated to ‘protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.’”

About this, Lindsey Harmon of Nevadans for Reproductive Choice offered the now-familiar nonsense: “It’s important to remember that this is about bodily autonomy and individual freedoms, so we believe that belongs in the state constitution, as well as just doubling down and protecting access. We’ve seen a lot of legislators in a lot of other states push abortion bans against the will of the people and so we want to make sure that we’re doing everything we can in the state of Nevada, as well as we want people in the state of Nevada to have an opportunity to vote on this. Take it out of the elected people’s hands and return this vote to the vote of the people.” The “bodily autonomy and individual freedoms” of the murdered child were, of course, not mentioned.

With Trump having the possibility of victory and the possibility of patriots’ victories on the ballot for the future, Nevada in Election 2024 is America in microcosm. Freedom hangs in the balance there as much as it does everywhere else.