The Final Countdown: One Last Look at the Race, and My Predictions

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The great election of 2024 is coming to a head, with only hours left until Election Day. So, where do things stand? Let’s take a look at what is likely to be the last major tranche of presidential polls, just for laughs.

The RealClearPolitics averages of the battlegrounds are what I’ve been heavily leaning on all along in this race, so let’s see where things stand. Thumbnail: There has been some tightening up of several of the races, which is typical at this point in the cycles. But Donald Trump is still leading Kamala Harris in five of the seven battlegrounds:

Arizona: Trump +2.3
Nevada: Trump +0.9
Wisconsin: Harris +0.3
Michigan: Harris +0.8
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.3
North Carolina: Trump +1.4
Georgia: Trump +2.6

Overall, in the battlegrounds, former President Trump maintains a slight lead, 0.9 points. In the national average, which is nothing more than a statistical curiosity, he leads by a narrower margin of 0.3 – but it’s important to note that this is a figure that rarely tilts to Republicans at all, so this may be an indicator of a larger shift.

If we take the current polling at the battlegrounds and plug those numbers in, then Trump/Vance win 287-251. That’s closer than we’d like to see, but if Trump managed to flip the other two battlegrounds, Wisconsin and Michigan, he would win 312-226. But then, Nevada and Pennsylvania are also dangerously close; if Harris manages to take those two seats, she wins 276-262.

But the latest breaking polls are showing some more interesting developments, and it’s not breaking Kamala Harris’s way. My colleague Nick Arama, writing on Thursday, notes that one of the most recent polls in Pennsylvania is comforting to the Trump camp – and that New Hampshire and Minnesota are looking more and more like toss-ups.

Nick writes:

Theoretically, if Trump could take New Hampshire, he could lose the Rust Belt and still make it to 270.

Now, Harris still has the lead there but it’s a problem for her that these possibilities are even cropping up, and it could be a sign things are slipping away from her generally.

That possibility is interesting indeed, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. Still, the Trump campaign is making some interesting moves for it being this late in the game; as I noted on Thursday, Trump is taking the fight to Democrat territory.

Kamala Harris, meanwhile, appears to be floundering. The now-infamous “garbage” comment hurts, her response to it was pathetic, and Donald Trump has been having a lot of fun trolling her on it. Kamala Harris just isn’t any good at being a candidate, and she’s getting more unhinged by the day.

My final prediction: Trump/Vance win, but not overwhelmingly; I would guess between 287 and 312 electoral votes. But in this, an inch is as good as a mile; a narrow win is still a win, although a landslide, while unlikely, would scream “mandate” and possibly open up some legislative possibilities that might not otherwise be possible. And there’s this: If Trump/Vance wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Harris can sweep the rest of the Rust Belt and still lose. So watch those three states on Election Night, because if Trump sweeps them, we can all go for an early night. That’s the way it’s been for some time, and it’s still looking that way. And let’s be candid: Looking at the state of things right now, it’s not looking like Harris/Walz will make a clean sweep of the rest of the Rust Belt.

Finally, here in the Great Land, we are doing our part to cement GOP control of the House of Representatives; polling of our single House seat is not trending in favor of Democrat Mary Peltola. A cautionary note: While ranked-choice voting is on the ballot for repeal, and while the odds of that are hopeful, this election will still be decided by that idiotic system, and Republican Nick Begich III’s lead does not appear to be enough to mark a win on the first tally. Yet. Early voting here has been brisk and heavily Republican, so we’ll see. But we may not know the outcome of that race, inexplicably, for some time.

Four days to go! If you can vote early, please do so, and if you can’t, get out and vote on Tuesday. Turnout is, as always, key. And on Tuesday night, tune in here at RedState, where we will be online with the latest news and updates, on the spot while it’s hot. And if you haven’t yet signed up for a VIP account, to get the best of all of our Election Night coverage, please consider it! Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for a 50% discount.

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