College Football Picks: Expert Predictions For Penn State-Ohio State, Florida-Georgia, Pitt-SMU & More

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The first weekend of November brings massive conference games including the big showdown in State College, Pennsylvania, where No. 4 Ohio State will visit No. 3 Penn State in the biggest Big Ten game of the year. 

A Penn State win will all but assure coach James Franklin’s squad of a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game, and almost certainly eliminate the Buckeyes. A win for Ryan Day and Ohio State will muddy the waters as we head down the stretch.

Elsewhere, the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party between Georgia and Florida carries more intrigue than you probably think, and there’s a key ACC game that you might not have thought much about heading into the season.

Are we prepared for ACC chaos? Well, SMU and Pittsburgh face-off Saturday night in what has turned into a massive game for the conference, especially as Miami and Clemson continue fighting for the automatic bid. But, this is not a certainty, as the Mustangs and Panthers are still fighting for a conference title. 

Outkick writers Trey Wallace and Barrett Sallee make their picks for Week 10. Keep in mind, a win in a “wild card” game earns two points in our totally made-up game.

Trey: 25-11 straight up, 17-19 against the spread (22 points)

Barrett: 27-9 straight up, 19-17 against the spread (25 points)

Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State

Wallace: I’m so back-and-forth on this one, with so much pressure on Penn State to get the job done, especially against an Ohio State offensive line that will be hampered on Saturday. If Drew Allar can go for all four quarters, and produce in key moments, then Penn State will get the win, which would be James Franklin first against Ryan Day. But at the same time, the Buckeyes have enough weapons to keep the Nittany Lions on their toes defensively. 

I’m going with Ohio State to cover the spread and win this Big Ten game that will have huge ramifications on the first College Football Playoff rankings. 

 

Sallee: I’ll take Penn State to not only cover, but win outright. Ohio State’s offensive line was a train wreck last weekend, and the Nittany Lions can bring just as much – if not more – heat that Nebraska. Plus, the crowd will come into play in what will be a raucous atmosphere in Happy Valley. 

Florida vs. Georgia (-15)

Wallace: I give Florida a lot of credit for playing better football over the past month, and there will be times where the Bulldogs are tested in the secondary. If we get the same Carson Beck we saw in the first halves against Alabama and Texas, Florida will keep this game close. But, if the Georgia QB can get into a rythym on offense, I don’t see the Gators winning a shootout. 

But, I’m going to Florida to cover the spread, as this matchup usually brings a few moments of chaos. 

Sallee: The high from the Texas win still exists in Athens, but the Bulldogs offense is still average-at-best with quarterback Carson Beck playing far below average over the last month. Plus, Gators coach Billy Napier had the chance to fine tune the new-look offense with freshman DJ Lagway as the full-time starter. Georgia will get the win, but the Gators will make it close and cover the massive spread.

Pittsburgh at SMU (-7.5)

Wallace: I didn’t expect this game in the ACC to be so pivotal before the season started, but here we are. I have enjoyed watching SMU QB Kevin Jennings play this season, and this is another opportunity to make a defense pay. At the same, Pittsburgh’s Eli Holstein is set to return this weekend, which will be crucial for the Panthers. 

I’m going with Pitt to cover the spread, but lose in the final moments of this game. 

Sallee: Who expected this game to be the biggest ACC game of the year? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Here we are with what will likely be a de facto elimination game in the race for an ACC Championship Game berth. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings has been one of the best unknown stories of the season, and he will light up the Panthers en route to the biggest win in generations for the once proud Mustangs.

Wild Card Games

Texas A&M (-3) @ South Carolina

Wallace: Doesn’t this just feel like a trap-game for the Aggies, coming off the win over LSU last weekend? Yes, it does, and Shane Beamer will have the Gamecocks ready for Texas A&M this weekend. But, if Marcel Reed has another game like he did against the Tigers, this could be another big win for the Aggies, as they march towards the SEC title game in Atlanta. Is LaNorris Sellers going to have a big outing against the Texas A&M defense? I’m fascinated to see how this plays out. 

In the end, I’m going with the upset, and taking South Carolina to snag the win over this Aggies squad, shocking college football. 

Ole Miss at Arkansas (+7.5) 

Sallee: The Rebels are one of the hardest teams in the country to figure out, so laying a full touchdown seems very irresponsible in a game against a hungry Razorbacks squad. Hogs quarterback Taylen Green went off last week. While Ole Miss’ defense is one of the best in the SEC, Green will still have plenty of success and force Ole Miss’ offense to get into a track meet. Before the season, I would have told you that a track meet is the Rebels’ comfort zone. Now, maybe not. Ole Miss will get the win, but the Hogs will keep it within the number.

There you have it, our weekly picks for some of the most intriguing games this weekend in college football. Let me know what you think by emailing me at Trey.Wallace@OutKick.com