NBA Best Bets For Halloween Include 1 Player Prop, 2 Underdogs

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Luckily, trick-or-treaters don’t come to my apartment complex for Halloween. I live a block from multi-million dollar homes in Long Beach, California. So, kids from all over the city, and nearby cities, come to my neighborhood expecting full-sized candy bars from affluent homeowners. Frankly, it’s insane how many kids trick-or-treat in my area. 

I’d guess homeowners spend at least $500 on Halloween candy. What does this have to do with sports betting? Not much other than it’s “business as usual” for me. Between Thursday Night Football and four NBA games, I’m gambling the money I save by not having to buy candy. In that spirit, let’s discuss my three NBA looks for Halloween. 

NBA Betting Card: Thursday, October 31st 

• Bet 0.79 units (u) on Houston Rockets PG Fred VanVleet UNDER 16.5 points (-105) vs. the Dallas Mavericks at BetMGM.
• Bet 1u on the San Antonio Spurs moneyline (+110) vs. the Utah Jazz at FanDuel.
• Bet 1.1u on the Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 (-110) vs. the Phoenix Suns at Caesars Sportsbook.

Rockets at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET

For what it’s worth, I’m 4-0 in NBA player props this season. I agree with the Mavs being -6.5 favorites over the Rockets in this spot, so there is no value in betting the spread. Hence, I’m trying to improve my NBA player props record to 5-0 by betting UNDER 16.5 points on Houston PG Fred VanVleet. This is playable down to 15.5. 

Through his first four games, VanVleet’s field goal shooting is 34.0% (career average: 40.4%) and free-throw shooting is 75.0% (career average: 86.7%). Last season, VanVleet averaged 13.5 points on 42.9% shooting (29.2% from behind the arc) in his four meetings with Dallas. 

VanVleet scored exactly 10 points in three of those games and 24 points in the other. In the 10-point games, VanVleet attempted fewer than 10 shots. Perhaps VanVleet might want to out-point-guard Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic. 

With that in mind, it makes sense for VanVleet to play more of a traditional point guard role. Rockets SG Jalen Green is the iso-scorer and C Alperen Sengun needs touches in the post. Finally, he doesn’t get to the foul line much. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, VanVleet is among the 18% of point guards who draw shooting fouls. 

Best Bet: Houston PG Fred VanVleet UNDER 16.5 points (-105) 

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Spurs (+110) at Jazz, 9 p.m. ET

My numbers say the Spurs should be -2 favorites in this spot. I’m banking on Jazz All-Star big Lauri Markkanen not playing Thursday. Markkanen left Utah’s game vs. the Sacramento Kings Tuesday with back spasms. Knowing Jazz basketball czar Danny Ainge’s commitment to tanking, I expect Markkanen will miss this game. 

Last season, Markkanen lit up the Spurs. He averaged 27.3 points on 73.3% true shooting (.577/.542/1.000) with a 132 offensive rating in three meetings with San Antonio. For context, the Cleveland Cavaliers currently lead the NBA with a 124.1 offensive rating. 

Both offenses are terrible, but the Spurs have a massive edge on the glass. San Antonio has a +9.0 rebound-per-game margin whereas Utah is at -3.5. Sans Markkanen, the Jazz will have a tougher time spacing the floor and the Spurs can pack the paint with their bigs. 

Furthermore, San Antonio’s poor offensive rating is more understandable. The Spurs have played three games vs. strong defenses (Houston twice and the Oklahoma City Thunder). The Jazz have played three mediocre defenses in the Golden State Warriors, Mavericks, and Sacramento Kings. 

Lastly, Utah surrenders 7.0 more wide-open threes per game than San Antonio. Markkanen is the Jazz’s only starter, shooting better than 25.0% from three, whereas the Spurs have three starters shooting better than the league average (35.8%) from deep. 

Prediction: Spurs 111, Jazz 109 

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Suns at Clippers (+4.5), 10:30 p.m. ET

Phoenix beat LAC 116-113 in overtime in their first meeting this season, but the Clippers covered as +5 home underdogs. According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the money is on the Suns as of 12:45 p.m. ET Thursday, partially because the Clippers lost to the lowly Portland Trail Blazers 106-105 as -8 home favorites Wednesday. 

Yet, styles make fights and Clippers All-Star James Harden balled vs. Phoenix last season. Harden averaged 20.5 points on 83.6% true shooting (.619/.636/1.000), 6.0 rebounds, and 10.5 assists with a 152 offensive rating in two meetings with the Suns. Last week, Harden put up 29 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists against Phoenix. 

Obviously, the Clippers would be better with a healthy Kawhi Leonard. However, everyone on this knows their role and Ty Lue is a good head coach. Despite Harden being a bad defender, LAC is fourth in defensive rating. They run a helio-centric offense around Harden and surround him with good 3-point shooters. 

Prediction: Suns 110, Clippers 108 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.