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The dumbest thing I’ve heard in the NFL media recently is that the Indianapolis Colts (4-4) shouldn’t replace second-year QB Anthony Richardson with veteran backup QB Joe Flacco because “they have to find out if Richardson is a franchise guy.” Colts coach Shane Steichen did just that ahead of Indy’s Week 9 game vs. the Minnesota Vikings (5-2) on Sunday Night Football.

Firstly, I hate the assumption that Richardson needs reps now to see if he’s worth a second contract. We’ve seen quarterbacks take years to develop, including Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield, and Vikings QB Sam Darnold. Why can’t Richardson learn from Flacco for the rest of the season, and the Colts kick that can down the street, so to speak?

Second, what message does it send to your locker room if there aren’t consequences when playing terribly? Richardson is completing only 44.4% of his passes and ranks last in QB Rating with a bullet. The next closest guy to Richardson’s 57.2 QB Rating is Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis with a 70.7 QB Rating. 

Most importantly, losses cost people jobs in the NFL. Steichen and Colts GM Chris Ballard cannot afford to throw away a season on a project quarterback. Especially when their team is pretty good and an AFC postseason berth is attainable. Indianapolis is a half-game behind the Los Angeles Chargers for the seventh, and final, AFC wild-card seed entering Week 9. 

Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +5.5 (-110) at BetMGM 

Flacco is 1-1 as a starter and led the Colts to a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in fill-in duty. He has 7 passing touchdowns, one interception, and a 102.2 QB Rating. For context, Richardson has thrown 4 TDs and 7 INTs, and Flacco’s QB Rating would rank eighth in the league. Per NFL data scientist Ben Baldwin, Flacco is sixth among quarterbacks in adjusted EPA. 

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is known for his exotic blitz packages, so you might think it would be better to have a mobile quarterback. In reality, veteran quarterbacks who can shift protection pre-snap have more success vs. Flores. Flacco knows how to get rid of the ball fast and will go downfield if he sees one-on-one coverage. 

Indianapolis Colts QB Joe Flacco stands in the pocket against the Tennessee at Nissan Stadium. (Steve Roberts-Imagn Images)

Indianapolis Colts QB Joe Flacco stands in the pocket against the Tennessee at Nissan Stadium. (Steve Roberts-Imagn Images)

Minnesota has lost two straight games against the Detroit Lions with QB Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams with QB Matt Stafford. Goff completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 140.0 QB Rating. Stafford was 25-for-34 with 279 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT, and a 124.5 QB Rating. Granted, the Lions and Rams have better weapons than the Colts. 

But, the cupboard isn’t bare for Indianapolis and Steichen is one of the best playcallers in the NFL. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is averaging 4.9 yards per carry this year and has gained 100+ rushing yards in three of his last four games. Indy has a top-five offensive line in football and WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce are good if someone can hit them with the ball. 

Also, the Vikings lost LT Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending ACL injury vs. the Rams. Darrisaw was Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) 10th-graded offensive tackle out of 76 qualifying tackles. Between DTs Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, the Colts have a pretty good defensive line and rank third in yards before contact, according to PFF. 

Finally, the league will catch up to Vikings QB Sam Darnold. His numbers say he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. However, Darnold has been playing with the lead most of the time. He has no fourth-quarter comebacks or game-winning drives and ranks 31st in sack rate. If the Colts can force the Vikings into 3-and-mediums, they’ll get Darnold off the field. 

Prediction: Colts 27, Vikings 23

  • Indianapolis +5.5 (down to +4.5) will be one of my five picks in Week 9 of the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest, and I’m sprinkling on the Colts’ moneyline too.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.