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There are obviously multiple ways we could interpret this, but on its face, it doesn’t look good for the Harris-Walz campaign. According to Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita, Kamala’s campaign appears to be pulling money out of North Carolina, and LaCivita speculates that the campaign is possibly diverting resources to Virginia, where some recent polls show a close race.
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@KamalaHarris giving up on North Carolina..pulling money out. Maybe to drop in Virginia to try and stop the slide ? pic.twitter.com/oTcCAuTJYx
— Chris LaCivita (@LaCivitaC) October 29, 2024
Others are reporting this as well.
NEW: Nearly $2M in North Carolina ads have been reportedly pulled by the Harris-Walz campaign.
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 29, 2024
I don’t know how accurate this is, and given that the Harris campaign has significantly out-fundraised the Trump campaign, in theory, it has money to burn. So why not keep going on offense in North Carolina? Of course, the Harris campaign has also been spending money far more rapidly than the Trump campaign, and there’s very little to show for it, which might explain it.
Signs that Republicans are going to perform well in North Carolina are certainly there. Republicans are doing well in the early vote.
The Republican lead in North Carolina almost doubled from yesterday!
Rumor has it that the Kamala campaign is shifting resources to shore up Virginia, which means they’re worried about losing Virginia.
Let’s make even the blue states red! pic.twitter.com/opV79tNETs
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 29, 2024
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However, according to the polling averages, North Carolina is still ripe for the Democrats to flip this year.
One week until Election Day! Here’s how the 2024 presidential race compares to the same point in the 2020 and 2016 elections, according to the RCP poll averages. pic.twitter.com/bukyIBEGPf
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 29, 2024
Of course, this certainly doesn’t mean that Kamala has given up on North Carolina; she is expected to visit the state on Wednesday. However, canceling a rally would be a far more ominous sign than reducing ads, and the Harris-Walz campaign may not want to show its cards.
Related: Think the Polls Are Undercounting Trump’s Support? Here’s Why You Shouldn’t.
But perhaps even more telling is that the Arlington, Va., GOP is reporting that the Harris-Walz campaign is diverting staffers from North Carolina to Virginia.
KAMALA SURRENDERS NORTH CAROLINA! We just received the following tip from a contact with friends in North Carolina.
Kamala is moving staff to Virginia. We must keep up the pressure here! pic.twitter.com/yr7YKszVzh
— Arlington GOP (@goparlington) October 29, 2024
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If this is all true, it is an extremely ominous sign for the Harris-Walz campaign. It has no reason to be confident that North Carolina is solidly in its column, and diverting resources to Virginia rather than one of the blue wall states suggests that the campaign is now playing defense, which is an incredibly ominous sign.
If Trump wins Arizona and North Carolina, Kamala has to win all three of the blue wall states to win the election. Can she do it? Perhaps. But given how Trump is stronger in all three states today than he was in the past two elections, that’s going to be an incredibly tall order.