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Nate Silver has made a prediction…

While stressing that it’s still a 50/50 race, famed pollster Nate Silver said this week that his “gut” tells him that former President Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris and win the presidency.

Silver, who founded polling site FiveThirtyEight, made the prediction in an op-ed for The New York Times

“In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver wrote.

“Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’” Silver went on. “So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”

“It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them,” he wrote.

Silver added that if Trump does defeat Vice President Kamala Harris next month, “there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification — about as many people now identify as Republicans.”

From The New York Post:

In making the case for Harris, Silver suggested that pollsters may be so worried about properly measuring support for Trump that they’ll stack their surveys against the Democratic nominee.

The FiveThirtyEight founder took issue with one particular tactic, in which pollsters weigh their surveys based on whom people said they voted for in 2020.

“[P]eople often misremember or misstate whom they voted for and are more likely to say they voted for the winner (in 2020, Mr. Biden),” Silver explained.

“That could plausibly bias the polls against Ms. Harris because people who say they voted for Mr. Biden but actually voted for Mr. Trump will get flagged as new Trump voters when they aren’t.

“There’s also a credible case that 2020 polling errors were partly because of [COVID-19] restrictions,” he went on. “Democrats were more likely to stay at home and therefore had more time on their hands to answer phone calls. If pollsters are correcting for what was a once-in-a-century occurrence, they may be overdoing it this time.”

RealClearPolling has Harris with a head-to-head lead of 1.1% over Trump in the national popular vote.

More over at The New York Post: