We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE.

Published|Updated

For a few weeks at the start of the 2024 college football season, it looked like the USC Trojans could be College Football Playoff contenders. A win over the LSU Tigers, dominant shutout victory over Utah State, and then a fourth-quarter lead on the road against the defending champion Michigan Wolverines.

But USC found a way to lose that Michigan game, and after a bounce-back victory over the Wisconsin Badgers, have lost three consecutive games against Minnesota, Penn State and Maryland. The disappointing turn has created questions about Lincoln Riley’s job security, whether the Trojans will be able to hold on to highly ranked recruiting classes, and if starting quarterback Miller Moss should be replaced.

In a season that started with so much promise, USC suddenly looks like a program in disarray. But what makes the team’s collapse even more bewildering and frustrating for Trojans fans is that it’s happened in historic fashion. 

Lincoln Riley

MINNEAPOLIS – Head coach Lincoln Riley of the USC Trojans talks to media after the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium on October 5, 2024. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

USC Finding Ways To Lose In Unbelievable Ways

It’s one thing to lose four games in a college football season, or even to lose three in a row. It’s another thing to lose four games the way USC has lost.

As USC_Nico pointed out on X, USC in the fourth quarter of all four losses had win probability exceeding 90 percent, per ESPN’s calculations. The loss at Maryland got as high as 97.2 percent. Somehow, the Trojans lost all four.

So how unlikely is it for a team to find itself in that position and lose all four games? There was just a 0.0013 percent chance for USC to have that level of win expectancy in four games and lose all four. It’s historic, it’s virtually unprecedented, and it’s USC football in a nutshell.

It’s easy to blame Lincoln Riley, and perhaps he does deserve the lion’s share of the blame. But the players are also responsible. Miller Moss has thrown backbreaking interceptions at the worst possible moments. There’s been a number of defensive collapses, including allowing a 60+ yard run against a team that could not throw a forward pass.

Missed field goals, blocked field goals, it’s all been part of the USC playbook. The 2024 season is over because of it, but there’s some comfort in knowing that it’s quite literally nearly impossible to be this bad again in 2025.