More Republicans Voting Early in 2024; More Than 20 Million Ballots Cast

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Data show around 23 million ballots have been returned with 13 days to go before the Nov. 5 election.

With around 23 million early ballots returned, more Republicans appear to be voting early—with just under two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 election.

Former President Donald Trump has encouraged his supporters to head to the polls early in recent months, most recently on Dan Bongino’s podcast last week: “I am telling everyone to vote early.” That’s somewhat of a reversal from 2020, when Trump often questioned mail-in ballots and early voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The Democrats are still, as far as I can tell, banking more early votes. It’s just less of a disadvantage for Republicans,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who carefully tracks the early vote.

“We don’t know if this is a shifting of furniture yet or an added strength for Republicans,” he said.

However, James Blair, the political director for Trump’s campaign, said the early voting data show good indicators for Trump ahead of the Nov. 5 contest.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to an Epoch Times request for comment.

“The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said Tuesday.

McDonald’s Election Lab tracking website shows that as of Wednesday morning, nearly 23 million early votes have been cast so far, with 13.5 million mail ballots being returned and 9.3 million early in-person votes being cast across more than 40 states, including all seven battleground contests.

Overall, in states that report party affiliation, about 43 percent of early votes have been cast by Democrats, 35 percent by Republicans, and 22 by independents or voters affiliated with a third party, the data show.

Around the same time four years ago, according to McDonald, Democrats had a significantly higher advantage in terms of overall early voting. About 15 days from Election Day in 2020, 52.8 percent of returned mail-in ballots and early in-person voting came from Democratic voters, compared to 25.2 percent for Republicans.

“In the states with party registration, registered Democrats have a huge advantage among early voters,” McDonald wrote on Oct. 18, 2020.

In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust early vote to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats have cast early ballots this year as of Tuesday, according to data provided by the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

In Arizona, another battleground state, 38,000 more Republicans than Democrats have cast early votes so far, the tracker shows.

The surge in 2020 Democratic early voting was largely a reaction to a pandemic that no longer exists, skewing historic comparisons. And what might seem like demographic trends in the early vote can suddenly disappear once Election Day votes are factored in.

Meanwhile, the early vote data only reveals whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for, and the early electorate can change from day to day as more people vote early.

The latest figures come as swing state Wisconsin, which doesn’t report party affiliation, opened up its early in-person voting period on Tuesday, leading to systemwide issues that election officials later said had been resolved. Some voters and cities had reported significant slowdowns in voting, while the state election agency said the problem was caused by high voter turnout.

Fellow battleground states North Carolina and Georgia have reported record turnouts on their first day of in-person early voting despite the devastation caused in both states by Hurricane Helene last month. Democrats have a slim, 10,000 voter advantage over Republicans in North Carolina, while Georgia doesn’t report party affiliation.

For Pennsylvania—perhaps the most heavily contested swing state in the 2024 race—Democrats have a 347,000 ballot advantage over Republicans, the site shows. The only votes cast so far in the Keystone State are via absentee.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.