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The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s last poll before election day takes Georgia out of the “swing state” category and puts it firmly in Trump’s column. Ever since shenanigans in Fulton County in 2020 led to a 0.24-point Biden victory in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, the left and the media have insisted on calling Georgia a swing state, a claim that ranks right up there with claiming Texas is going to elect a Democrat senator this year.

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State of Play

As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight.com gives Trump a 2.0-point lead, and RealClearPoliitcis shows a 2.5-point lead. Trump has led in every poll in October. The last time Harris showed a lead in either the 538 or RCP averages was in the first half of September.

Atlanta Journal-Constitution Poll Topline

The AJC poll gives Trump a solid 4-point lead. This is the best result for Trump since a Quinnipiac Poll showed Trump leading by seven points.

What’s Inside Is Worse

Gender Gap

I don’t think it is a news flash that Kamala is tanking with male voters. There is usually a gender gap between male and female voters in choosing Americans versus Democrats, but Kamala has managed to flip the narrative a bit. In this election, men are much more likely to support Trump than women are to support Harris. One of the reasons for picking Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate and then sending him out to hunt pheasant with “the guys” was to increase her appeal to male voters (see YIKES: Tim Walz Trying to Load His Gun at Pheasant Hunt Is Something to See – RedState).

BACKGROUND:

Tim Walz’s Manly Essence Isn’t Helping Kamala Win Male Voters – RedState

Kamala Harris Sends Out Tim Walz to Talk Man-Stuff to Men About Being Manly – RedState

This anecdote told by Mr. Kamala, Doug Emhoff, is totally cringe and brings to mind a classic Star Trek episode; see OPINION: Kamala Harris’ Interview Looked a Lot Like This Star Trek Episode.

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The bad news for Kamala is that the gender gap in Georgia is much greater than in national polls. While Harris leads among women by 18 points (55.4 to 37.2), Trump carries men by a whopping 31 points (59.3 to 28.3). Even if women have a higher voting rate than men, it is hard to see how this is overcome.

Age Preference

Trump leads among 18–29-year-olds (52.3 to 44.3), 45–64-year-olds (51.9 to 42.1), and the 65+ crowd (45.6 to 43.6). Kamala leads by 10 points with the 30-44 demographic (47.2 to 37.3).

Race and Ethnicity

Trump carries White voters by a 38-point margin (66.1 to 28.4). Kamala wins Black voters by 66 points (73.8 to 7.6) and “Other” voters by 13 points (52.7 to 39.2). Biden flipped Georgia in 2020 by winning 88% of the Black votes (and a few 18-wheelers of badly needed ballots).

Education

Trump wins voters with a high school diploma or less by 20 points (54.8 to 34.8) and those with some college by four points (49.5 to 45.0). Harris takes the college group by 10 points (49.1 to 38.8).

The Dog That Didn’t Bother to Get Up

One thing really stood out in the cross tabs of this poll. The demographics that Trump carried, he did so convincingly. Kamala voters were a little more uncertain. For instance, while Kamala leads Black voters by 66 points, 17.6 are “undecided” only two weeks out. She leads 30–44-year-olds by 10, but 14.2 percent remain undecided. Among college graduates, 10.6 percent say they haven’t made up their minds. 

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The other impact is the truism that “undecideds break to the challenger.” 

Big Issues

From Politico’s overview of the AJC poll:

What we’re watching: Heading into the presidential election, 60% of voters said they believed the country is on the wrong track, compared with 28% who said it’s on the right path.

  • 19% say inflation and the cost of living are their top issues.
  • Rounding out the top five were the economy/jobs (17%), preserving democracy (17%), immigration (14%) and abortion (8%).

I would contend that, at best, one of these cuts in Kamala’s favor: abortion. Of course, we don’t really know what “abortion” means here. Does it mean you want to keep it or get rid of it? The Democrats like to pretend that “preserving democracy” is their issue. I don’t think that is the case. Many, many conservatives believe that if Kamala wins in two weeks, our Constitutional Republic may not survive another four years.

Bottom Line

The AJC poll verifies what other polls have shown. Kamala peaked in Georgia shortly after the Democrat convention and has been hemorrhaging support ever since. The AJC poll has been reliably within two points of the outcome of Georgia races since 2016, with an average error of R +0.9.

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The incredible gender gap and Trump leading in most age and education brackets combined with nearly a fifth of Black voters saying they are undecided all say that Georgia will go for Trump. In the words of St. Augustine, we must “Pray as though everything depended on God. Work as though everything depended on you.” And we must be vigilant because, in the words of Josef Stalin, “The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.”